惠城环保（300779）：Q3业绩回暖，废塑料项目蓄势待发

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Insights - The company experienced a steady revenue growth in Q3 2025, with a revenue of 310 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.0%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 36.5% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, totaling 30 million yuan [1] - The increase in Q3 profit is attributed to higher sales and revenue from catalysts and increased income from ash disposal. The overall profit decline in the first three quarters is due to delayed steam sales and rising overall expenses from expanding new projects [1][2] - The company's mixed waste plastic deep catalytic cracking project has begun normal sales, with plans to achieve full production by early 2026, which is expected to be a new growth point for the company [3] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the gross margin improved to 26.4%, up by 1.6 percentage points year-on-year. However, the net cash flow from operating activities saw a significant decline of 3416.5%, amounting to -140 million yuan, primarily due to reduced cash receipts from sales and increased cash payments for new projects [2] - The company forecasts revenues of 1.25 billion yuan, 2.50 billion yuan, and 3.82 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 110 million yuan, 480 million yuan, and 810 million yuan for the same years [4][3] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 265.7x, 63.4x, and 37.1x respectively, indicating a significant expected growth in profitability over the forecast period [4]