Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-10-29 10:29Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Huadian International [2][7]. Core Views - The company reported a slight improvement in power generation margins and is expected to benefit from an upcoming increase in capacity pricing [7]. - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 95.872 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 9.72%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 15.87% to 6.437 billion yuan [7]. - The average on-grid electricity price for the first nine months was 0.50955 yuan per kilowatt-hour, down 2.76% year-on-year, but the company is expected to see improved profitability due to a larger decline in costs compared to electricity prices [7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to increase from 112.994 billion yuan in 2024 to 130.669 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 6.3% [6][9]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to grow from 6.895 billion yuan in 2025 to 8.044 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 20.9% in 2025 [6][9]. - The company's financial costs have decreased significantly, with financial expenses for the first nine months of 2025 at 2.414 billion yuan, down 4.47 billion yuan year-on-year [7]. Capacity Pricing and Regulatory Changes - The upcoming increase in capacity pricing is expected to add approximately 3.536 billion yuan to the company's revenue starting in 2026, as the fixed cost recovery ratio for coal-fired power plants is set to rise [7]. - The company holds a substantial coal-fired power generation capacity of 54.4 million kilowatts, positioning it to benefit significantly from the regulatory changes [7].