固收定期报告：利率三季度理财规模为何高增？

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The significant increase in the scale in the third quarter of this year is mainly due to the large - scale maturity of high - interest fixed deposits after the major banks lowered deposit rates in May, the acceleration of floating profit release during the valuation rectification process by the end of the year, and the fact that the third quarter is a traditional peak season for wealth management growth. Looking ahead, the wealth management scale is still expected to increase significantly in the fourth quarter, but the fluctuations in net value and scale will be amplified after the full completion of valuation rectification [3][6][9] Group 3: Summary by Related Directory Reasons for the High Growth of Wealth Management Scale in the Third Quarter - The main reason for the large - scale increase in the third quarter is the combination of the major banks' deposit rate cut in May and the large - scale maturity of high - interest fixed deposits. From 2022 - 2023, residents' fixed deposits increased significantly at high interest rates, with 3 - year fixed deposits maturing in the next two years. After the rate cut in May, the interest rate difference between 3 - year and 1 - year fixed deposits dropped to 30BP, and the proportion of residents' fixed deposits declined, indicating that some deposits moved to wealth management [6] - By the end of the year, it may be the final node for the full completion of the valuation rectification task. During the rectification process, floating profits will be accelerated, and wealth management institutions can use this advantage to attract customers. Although bond market interest rates rose significantly in the third quarter, the proportion of fixed - income products remained stable above 97%, contributing most of the incremental scale, and the number of investors continued to grow. The average annualized return of wealth management products in the third quarter was 2.28%, still having an advantage over 3 - year fixed deposits [6] - Seasonally, the third quarter is usually a peak season for wealth management growth. From 2019 - 2024, the average growth of wealth management scale in the third quarter was 1.28 trillion yuan [6] Other Concerns in the Third - Quarter Report of Wealth Management - In terms of asset allocation, the proportion of cash and deposits increased significantly, the proportion of inter - bank lending increased slightly, and the proportions of other categories decreased to varying degrees. Although the equity market performed well, the proportion of equity assets still decreased slightly [6] - The leverage ratio decreased significantly, indicating that wealth management has a strong demand for stable net value when the bond market fluctuates [7] - The proportion of closed - end products increased slightly. Some closed - end wealth management products can use the amortized cost method for valuation, which may have certain advantages after the valuation rectification [7] Future Outlook - Whether from a seasonal perspective or the trend of fixed - deposit maturity, the wealth management scale is still expected to increase significantly in the fourth quarter. However, with the full completion of the valuation rectification of wealth management, the fluctuations in net value and scale will be amplified [9]