固定收益点评：如何理解央行将恢复国债买卖

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The People's Bank of China will resume open - market treasury bond trading operations. The operation is positioned as a base money injection channel and a liquidity management tool, which can create a suitable liquidity environment when combined with other tools [2]. - In the short term, the central bank's treasury bond trading is expected to bring pulse - like opportunities to the bond market, with a more direct positive impact on the short - end. In the long term, the impact is neutral, and interest - rate bonds in the fourth quarter remain weak assets [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Process of the Central Bank's Open - Market Treasury Bond Trading Operations since 2024 - After the Central Financial Work Conference in October 2023, the central bank's open - market treasury bond trading came into the market's view. In June 2024, Governor Pan Gongsheng said that the central bank was studying with the Ministry of Finance to gradually increase treasury bond trading in open - market operations. In August 2024, the central bank officially carried out open - market treasury bond trading, buying short - term treasury bonds and selling long - term ones, with a net purchase of 100 billion yuan in bond face value that month. From September to December 2024, the net purchase of bond face value was 200 billion yuan, 200 billion yuan, 200 billion yuan, and 300 billion yuan respectively. In January 2025, the operation was suspended due to bond market supply - demand imbalance and accumulated market risks, and will now be resumed [2]. 2. Functions of MLF and Repurchase in Base Money Injection in 2025 - The net purchase of treasury bonds from August to December 2024 totaled 1 trillion yuan, which matured in 2025. The "claims on the central government" in the central bank's assets decreased from 2.9 trillion yuan at the end of 2024 to 2.2 trillion yuan at the end of September 2025, equivalent to withdrawing 700 billion yuan of base money. In 2025, the central bank mainly relied on MLF and repurchase to inject base money, with a net injection of about 3 trillion yuan, increasing the "claims on other depository corporations" from 15.6 trillion yuan at the end of 2024 to 19.5 trillion yuan at the end of September 2025, and its proportion in total assets rising from 35.5% to 41.4%. The net injection scale of MLF and repurchase has been more significant since the second half of the year, consistent with the trend of capital prices [2]. 3. Five Functions of the Central Bank's Open - Market Treasury Bond Trading Operations - Enrich the monetary policy toolbox: Open - market treasury bond trading is a normal monetary policy tool, used flexibly without specific triggering conditions, and does not conflict with MLF and repurchase operations [2]. - Enhance the financial functions of treasury bonds: Treasury bonds should not only serve fiscal financing but also act as monetary policy tools, asset pricing benchmarks, high - quality collateral, and asset allocation tools [3]. - Play the pricing benchmark role of the treasury bond yield curve: Open - market treasury bond trading is two - way, which can regulate the yield curve of treasury bonds and the entire bond market, a function not available in reserve requirement ratio cuts, MLF, and repurchase [4]. - Promote the coordination between monetary policy and fiscal policy: In September 2025, the joint working group of the Ministry of Finance and the central bank discussed issues such as coordination and the central bank's treasury bond trading, and a good cooperation mechanism may have been formed [4]. - Benefit the reform and development of the bond market and improve the market - making and pricing capabilities of financial institutions: Open - market treasury bond trading requires a certain scale and depth of the bond market, and the central bank's trading increases market trading volume and activity. It also helps primary dealers adjust their treasury bond inventories and improve overall market - making and pricing capabilities [4]. 4. Impact on the Bond Market - Short - term: The trading term and scale of the central bank's treasury bond trading are not clear. It is expected to mainly buy short - term treasury bonds, with a scale not exceeding that in 2024, bringing pulse - like opportunities to the bond market, and having a more direct positive impact on the short - end. Long - term bonds will still be affected by factors such as Sino - US relations and the performance of the equity market [5]. - Long - term: The impact of the central bank's treasury bond trading is mainly neutral. Against the background of low coupon rates and low capital gains, interest - rate bonds in the fourth quarter remain weak assets [5].