棉系周报：收购进入高峰，棉价震荡略偏强-20251029

Report Title - Cotton Weekly Report: Acquisition Enters Peak, Cotton Prices Fluctuate Slightly Higher [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates that the US cotton market will likely remain range - bound, while the Zhengzhou cotton market is expected to show a slightly bullish trend in the short term due to stable acquisition prices and unchanged demand [42]. Summary by Directory Part I: Domestic and International Market Analysis International Market Analysis - US Cotton Market: The fundamentals have changed little, and the market is expected to move sideways. The cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton and Pima cotton as of October 17, 2025, is 376,700 tons, accounting for 12% of the annual production forecast, 27% slower than the same period last year. The weekly and quarterly deliverable ratios are 71% and 77.8% respectively, with the quarterly ratio down 2.8 percentage points month - on - month. As of September 18, 2025, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton decreased by 54%, and the weekly shipment volume increased by 14% [8]. - Pakistan: As of October 15, 2025, the cumulative new cotton listing volume in the 2025/26 season reached 588,000 tons, a 22% year - on - year increase, with 471,000 tons purchased by textile mills and 98,000 tons unsold [8]. - Brazil: As of October 17, the soybean sowing progress in Mato Grosso has accelerated to about 44%, about 18 percentage points faster than the same period last year, which is favorable for subsequent cotton sowing [8]. - India: The 2024/25 cotton balance sheet remains stable compared to last month. The beginning inventory increased by 170,000 tons, production decreased by 220,000 tons, imports increased by 400,000 tons, domestic demand increased by 20,000 tons, exports decreased by 180,000 tons, and the ending inventory increased by 520,000 tons compared to the previous year. The market expects the 2025/26 production to be between 5.525 million and 5.61 million tons [8]. - Global: According to the latest September global cotton production and sales forecast by the USDA, the global cotton production in September was 25.62 million tons, an increase of 230,000 tons month - on - month. China's production increased by 218,000 tons to 7.076 million tons, total consumption increased by 184,000 tons to 25.68 million tons, and the ending inventory decreased by 168,000 tons to 15.92 million tons [8]. Domestic Market Logic Analysis - Supply Side: The domestic new cotton harvest is in full swing. As of October 22, 2025, the cumulative public inspection volume was 1,013,898 tons, a 71.19% year - on - year increase. As of October 17, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 1.4334 million tons, a 24.06% increase from the previous week [25]. - Demand Side: As of October 16, the operating rate of spinning mills in the mainstream areas was 65.6%, unchanged from the previous week. The inventory of cotton in spinning mills was equivalent to 27.10 days of stock, and the yarn inventory of spinning mills was 30 days, a 0.67% increase from the previous week [25]. - Overall: The acquisition progress has entered a peak, acquisition prices are stable, and the market is expected to fluctuate slightly higher in the short term [25]. Option Strategy - Volatility decreased slightly compared to the previous day. The trading volume of both call and put options increased. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [39]. Futures Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The US cotton market is expected to move sideways, while the Zhengzhou cotton market is expected to show a slightly bullish trend. - Arbitrage: Short the November contract and long the January contract [42]. Part II: Weekly Data Tracking - Mid - stream Situation: Data on the operating rate of pure cotton yarn mills, full - cotton greige fabric mills, and inventory days of yarn and greige fabric are presented [49]. - Cotton Inventory: Information on national commercial cotton inventory, spinning mills' industrial cotton inventory, and reserve inventory is provided [51]. - Basis Situation: Data on the basis of cotton futures contracts and the basis of US upland cotton are shown [54].