多空分歧出现，能化涨跌互现：橡胶甲醇原油

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - On Wednesday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume and positions, stabilizing in oscillation, and rising slightly. The price closed up 1.56% at 15,625 yuan/ton. Driven by macro and industrial factors, the valuation of the contract is expected to recover [5]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2601 on Wednesday showed a trend of decreasing volume and positions, being slightly stronger in oscillation, and rising slightly. It closed up 0.22% at 2,257 yuan/ton. Driven by the sharp rise in domestic coal futures prices, the cost - logic support offset the weak supply - demand structure of domestic methanol, leading to an oscillatory consolidation trend [5]. - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2512 on Wednesday showed a trend of increasing volume but decreasing positions, being slightly weaker in oscillation, and falling slightly. It closed down 0.81% at 462.6 yuan/barrel. After the previous bullish geopolitical factors were gradually digested, the oil market shifted to a market dominated by weak supply - demand fundamentals [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of October 26, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 432,200 tons, a decrease of 5,300 tons or 1.20% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory decreased by 1.29% to 68,700 tons, and the general trade inventory decreased by 1.18% to 363,500 tons. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses decreased by 3.05 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 2.61 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 2.89 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.54 percentage points [7]. - In the week of October 24, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.84%, a week - on - week increase of 1.77 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.84 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.87%, a week - on - week increase of 1.91 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.95 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises increased slightly due to early snowfall in some regions and the recovery of all - steel tire production [7]. - In September 2025, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 51.2%, a 0.3 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. The new order index of logistics enterprises was 53.3%, a 1 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, remaining above 52% for four consecutive months. In September, China's automobile production and sales were 3.276 million and 3.226 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 17.1% and 14.9%. In the first three quarters of 2025, China's automobile production and sales totaled 24.333 million and 24.363 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 13.3% and 12.9%. In September 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was 105,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 82% and a month - on - month increase of 15%, achieving six consecutive months of growth. From January to September 2025, the cumulative sales volume of the heavy - truck market was about 821,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 20% [8]. Methanol - As of the week of October 24, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 82.71%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.67%, a month - on - month increase of 3.20%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.17%. The average weekly methanol output in China was 1.9435 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 40,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 70,800 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 73,600 tons [9]. - As of the week of October 24, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 30.97%, a week - on - week increase of 0.02%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 8.34%, a week - on - week increase of 1.66%. The acetic acid operating rate was 73.61%, a week - on - week increase of 2%. The MTBE operating rate was 56.50%, a week - on - week increase of 1.61%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 86.45%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.91 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 3.42%. The futures profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 154 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 111 yuan/ton and a month - on - month increase of 22 yuan/ton [9]. - As of the week of October 24, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 1.2698 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,700 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 308,100 tons. As of the week of October 23, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China was 360,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,400 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 76,500 tons [10]. Crude Oil - As of the week of October 17, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 418, unchanged from the previous week and 64 less than the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.629 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 700 barrels/day and a year - on - year increase of 129,000 barrels/day [10]. - As of the week of October 17, 2025, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 423 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 961,000 barrels and a year - on - year decrease of 3.2 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 21.231 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 770,000 barrels. The U.S. strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 408.56 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 819,000 barrels. The U.S. refinery operating rate was 88.6%, a week - on - week increase of 2.9 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 4.4 percentage points, and a year - on - year decrease of 0.9 percentage points [11]. - As of September 23, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions of WTI crude oil were 102,958 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 4,249 contracts and a 15.65% decrease from the August average of 122,063 contracts. As of October 21, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 51,791 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 58,520 contracts and a 76.06% decrease from the September average of 216,355 contracts [11]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,750 yuan/ton | 0 yuan/ton | 15,625 yuan/ton | +265 yuan/ton | - 875 yuan/ton | - 265 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,232 yuan/ton | - 18 yuan/ton | 2,257 yuan/ton | +16 yuan/ton | - 25 yuan/ton | - 16 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 433.4 yuan/barrel | +0.1 yuan/barrel | 462.6 yuan/barrel | - 0.1 yuan/barrel | - 29.3 yuan/barrel | 0 yuan/barrel | [13] 3.3 Related Charts - Rubber: Charts include rubber basis, 1 - 5 month spread, SHFE rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [14][16][21][24] - Methanol: Charts include methanol basis, 1 - 5 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [27][31][29][33][35] - Crude Oil: Charts include crude oil basis, SHFE crude oil futures inventory, U.S. crude oil commercial inventory, U.S. refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [38][44][40][46][42][48]