Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-29 11:29Report Investment Rating - No report industry investment rating is provided in the content [1][2][3] Core Viewpoints - The yield of treasury bond cash bonds on Wednesday was strong in the short - term and weak in the ultra - long - term. The yields of 1 - 7Y maturities declined by about 0.40 - 4.0bp, while the 10Y and 30Y yields changed by about - 0.4 and 0.5bp to 1.81% and 2.17% respectively. Treasury bond futures were also strong in the short - term and weak in the ultra - long - term. The TS, TF, and T main contracts rose by 0.10%, 0.16%, and 0.13% respectively, while the TL main contract fell by 0.27%. The weighted average rate of DR007 fluctuated around 1.54%. [3] - Domestically, in September, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size continued to recover due to the low - base effect, with a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. In Q3, China's GDP grew by 4.8% year - on - year, with a stable growth rate but a slowdown compared to the previous value. In September, industrial added value increased significantly year - on - year, social retail growth slowed down, and fixed - asset investment continued to shrink. [3] - Policy - wise, the communiqué of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee pointed out that the current economic development faces a complex environment, emphasizing that the steady - growth policy will continue to exert force, enhancing the endogenous driving force of the economy through expanding domestic demand, promoting consumption, and stabilizing investment, and requiring the firm completion of the annual economic and social development goals. [3] - The central bank governor, Pan Gongsheng, said at the Financial Street Forum that the bond market is currently operating well, and the central bank will resume open - market treasury bond trading operations. Overseas, the US CPI in September was lower than expected; ADP data showed that the employment market in October was recovering. The new round of Sino - US trade consultations ended with positive signals, alleviating market concerns about the escalation of trade frictions. [3] - The central bank's resumption of treasury bond trading will inject stable liquidity into the market, driving down long - term interest rates by lowering short - term rates, boosting the bullish sentiment in the bond market. The weak fundamentals may push the bond market to fluctuate upwards. It is recommended to take a small - position long - trial strategy. [3] Summary by Directory Futures Disk - T main contract closing price was 108.570, up 0.13%; trading volume was 91,358, an increase of 16,290. TF main contract closing price was 106.070, up 0.16%; trading volume was 99,318, an increase of 31,449. TS main contract closing price was 102.576, up 0.1%; trading volume was 56,118, an increase of 16,695. TL main contract closing price was 115.830, down 0.27%; trading volume was 125,436, an increase of 2,105. [2] Futures Spread - TL2512 - 2603 spread was 0.31, up 0.04; T12 - TL12 spread was - 7.26, up 0.28. T2512 - 2603 spread was 0.33, up 0.01; TF12 - T12 spread was - 2.50, up 0.02. TF2512 - 2603 spread was 0.13, up 0.01; TS12 - T12 spread was - 5.99, down 0.04. TS2512 - 2603 spread was 0.09, up 0.00; TS12 - TF12 spread was - 3.49, down 0.06. [2] Futures Positions - T main contract open interest was 246,279, an increase of 7,086. The long positions of the top 20 were 229,274, an increase of 7,125; the short positions of the top 20 were 244,936, an increase of 7,726; the net short positions of the top 20 were 15,662, an increase of 601. [2] - TF main contract open interest was 149,109, an increase of 10,861. The long positions of the top 20 were 134,888, an increase of 11,395; the short positions of the top 20 were 157,956, an increase of 12,895; the net short positions of the top 20 were 23,068, an increase of 1,500. [2] - TS main contract open interest was 71,222, an increase of 2,282. The long positions of the top 20 were 56,899, an increase of 2,394; the short positions of the top 20 were 64,700, an increase of 3,412; the net short positions of the top 20 were 7,801, an increase of 1,018. [2] - TL main contract open interest was 146,041, a decrease of 1,892. The long positions of the top 20 were 141,200, an increase of 914; the short positions of the top 20 were 158,654, a decrease of 1,625; the net short positions of the top 20 were 17,454, a decrease of 2,539. [2] Top Two CTD (Clean Prices) - 220017.IB (4y) was 106.6589, up 0.0971; 250018.IB (4y) was 99.0955, up 0.1290. 250003.IB (4y) was 99.6819, up 0.1426; 240020.IB (4y) was 100.8844, up 0.0843. 220016.IB (1.7y) was 101.9407, up 0.0838; 250012.IB (2y) was 100.1099, up 0.0800. 210005.IB (17y) was 130.7675, down 0.3477; 220008.IB (18y) was 122.7161, down 0.2279. [2] Active Treasury Bonds - The yield of 1 - year bond was 1.4300%, down 0.5bp; 3 - year was 1.4600%, down 5bp; 5 - year was 1.5600%, up 1bp; 7 - year was 1.6725%, down 0.25bp; 10 - year was 1.8130%, up 1.8bp. [2] Short - term Interest Rates - The overnight inter - bank pledged repo rate was 1.3515%, up 5.15bp; Shibor overnight was 1.4140%, down 5.5bp. The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate was 1.5318%, up 5.18bp; Shibor 7 - day was 1.5120%, down 1.8bp. The 14 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate was 1.5900%, unchanged; Shibor 14 - day was 1.5590%, down 8.8bp. [2] LPR Rates - The 1 - year LPR was 3.00%, unchanged; the 5 - year LPR was 3.5%, unchanged. [2] Open Market Operations - The issuance scale was 557.7 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 138.2 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 - day. The net investment was 419.5 billion yuan. [2] Industry News - On October 29, the spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30 to exchange views on Sino - US relations and issues of common concern. [2] - Central bank governor Pan Gongsheng said in a report on financial work that the next step is to prevent and resolve financial risks in key areas, strengthen the monitoring and assessment of systemic financial risks, continue to support the debt - to - equity swap of financing platforms, and improve the financing system suitable for the new model of real estate development. [2] - On October 29, the general offices of five departments including the Ministry of Commerce issued the "Action Plan for Improving the Quality of Urban Commerce", aiming to promote the integrated development of online and offline, encourage cooperation between e - commerce and express delivery companies, and improve the efficiency and quality of last - mile delivery. [2] Key Events to Watch - The 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference is held from October 27 to 30. The US Federal Reserve will announce the interest rate decision (upper limit) as of October 29 at 2:00 on October 30. [3]