“十五五”规划系列报告（七）：提高消费率：愿景路径各几何？

Group 1: Consumption Rate Goals - The "14th Five-Year Plan" proposes a significant increase in the household consumption rate, targeting an increase of at least 5-7 percentage points over the next five years[3] - By 2035, China's per capita GDP is expected to reach the level of moderately developed countries, with a potential increase of approximately 14 percentage points in household consumption rate compared to the average of 54% in major developed economies[3] Group 2: Pathways to Increase Consumption - Two main pathways to enhance the consumption rate are stimulating willingness and supporting capability, with the former reflecting consumer willingness and the latter reflecting income capability[4] - Historical evidence suggests that enhancing consumer willingness has been more effective in driving consumption rate improvements compared to merely increasing income capability[4] Group 3: Current Consumption Trends - Currently, China's household consumption rate is below 40%, while major developed economies have rates exceeding 50%, indicating a significant gap[5] - Consumer willingness in China is approximately 65%, compared to over 90% in major developed countries, highlighting a critical constraint on consumption rate improvement[5] Group 4: Potential for Consumption Rate Increase - In an extreme scenario where China's consumption propensity rises to 90%, the consumption rate could potentially reach 55%, indicating a remaining potential increase of about 15 percentage points[6] - If consumer willingness increases by 10% to around 75%, the consumption rate could rise by 5 percentage points to approximately 45%[7]