Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Focus on the central bank's bond - buying operations. Maintain a long - position idea for treasury bond futures, hold existing long positions at low levels, and avoid chasing high prices [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - On Wednesday, treasury bond futures opened higher. Except for TL, all contracts maintained gains. TL weakened significantly in the afternoon and was the only one to close down. The marginal relaxation of the capital market led to the DR001 falling to around 1.41%. There were 557.7 billion yuan in open - market reverse repurchases, with a net withdrawal of 80.5 billion yuan [1] 2. Important News - The Wall Street Journal reported that leaders of China and the United States will discuss a trade framework to reduce US tariffs on Chinese goods, and the US may halve the current 20% fentanyl tariff on Chinese goods. Chinese Foreign Ministry announced that President Xi Jinping will meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30 local time [2] 3. Market Analysis - The stock market performed strongly today, with the broader market standing above 4,000 points again, but the bond market was unaffected. The yields of 1 - 3 - year spot bonds declined by 3 - 4bp. There were rumors that large banks were buying all new bonds issued this year with a maturity of less than 3 years. The game around the central bank's bond - buying operations mainly focused on the short - to - medium - term in recent days. Yesterday, the 3 - year yield declined the most, and today, it spread to bonds with a maturity of less than 3 years. Attention should be paid to whether the long - term yields can follow the decline after the short - term interest rates reach a certain level [3] 4. Treasury Bond Futures Daily Data | Contract | 2025 - 10 - 29 | 2025 - 10 - 28 | Today's Change | Contract Position (Lots) on 2025 - 10 - 29 | Contract Position (Lots) on 2025 - 10 - 28 | Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.564 | 102.47 | 0.094 | 80,824 | 78,077 | 2,747 | | TF2512 | 106.06 | 105.905 | 0.155 | 175,746 | 162,038 | 13,708 | | T2512 | 108.58 | 108.425 | 0.155 | 282,522 | 274,231 | 8,291 | | TL2512 | 115.93 | 116.14 | - 0.21 | 185,819 | 185,933 | - 114 | | TS Basis (CTD) | - 0.0241 | - 0.0023 | - 0.0218 | TS Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 56,118 | 39,423 | 16,695 | | TF Basis (CTD) | - 0.0746 | 0.085 | - 0.1596 | TF Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 99,318 | 67,869 | 31,449 | | T Basis (CTD) | - 0.0279 | 0.1987 | - 0.2266 | T Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 91,358 | 75,068 | 16,290 | | TL Basis (CTD) | - 0.0156 | 0.3712 | - 0.3868 | TL Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 125,436 | 123,331 | 2,105 | [4]
国债期货日报-20251029
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-10-29 11:41