粕类日报：供应利多体现充分，盘面上涨整体受限-20251029

Group 1: Report Title and General Information - Report title: "Meal Daily Report - October 29, 2025" [1] - Report summary: Supply bullish factors are fully reflected, and the overall upward movement of the market is restricted [1] Group 2: Market Quotes Futures and Spot Basis - Soybean meal: The closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 2969, 2803, and 2923 respectively, with changes of -6, +8, and +11. Spot basis varies by region, such as 50 in Tianjin, -20 in Dongguan, etc. [3] - Rapeseed meal: The closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 2373, 2330, and 2426 respectively, with changes of -23, -8, and -7. Spot basis also varies by region, like 37 in Nantong, 127 in Guangdong, etc. [3] Monthly Spreads - Soybean meal: The 15 - spread is 166 (down 14 from yesterday), the 59 - spread is -120 (down 3), and the 91 - spread is -46 (up 17). [3] - Rapeseed meal: The 15 - spread is 43 (down 15 from yesterday), the 59 - spread is -96 (down 1), and the 91 - spread is 53 (up 16). [3] Cross - Variety Futures Spreads - The 01 spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 596 (up from 579 yesterday), and the 09 spread is 497 (up from 479 yesterday). The 01 oil - meal ratio is 2.739 (down from 2.750 yesterday). [3] Spot Spreads - The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 473 (up 1 from yesterday), the spread between rapeseed meal and sunflower meal is 270 (down 10), and the spread between soybean meal and sunflower meal is 673 (up 21). [3] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis International Market - US soybeans: Although the recent trend is strong, the overall fundamental changes are limited. The market generally expects a slight downward adjustment in the new - crop yield per unit, which supports the price to some extent. The current price reflects the positive impact of US soybean exports, but the upward space is limited without other positive factors. [4] - South America: In Brazil, the new - crop sowing has started and is progressing rapidly. Institutions generally expect a bumper harvest. With limited demand growth, the export volume is expected to increase significantly. The old - crop has good export and crushing performance, but the subsequent crushing drive may be limited. In Argentina, the old - crop soybean production is relatively large, and the recent crushing and export have increased significantly, with the pressure improving. [4] Domestic Market - Soybean meal: The overall supply and demand are relatively loose. The oil mill operating rate has increased, the supply is sufficient, and the提货 volume has also increased, while the inventory remains high. As of October 24, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills is 2.3674 million tons, the operating rate is 65.13%, the soybean inventory is 7.5129 million tons (down 174,100 tons from last week, a decrease of 2.26%, and up 1.9282 million tons year - on - year, an increase of 34.53%), and the soybean meal inventory is 1.0546 million tons (up 78,400 tons from last week, an increase of 8.03%, and up 1,800 tons year - on - year, an increase of 0.17%). [5] - Rapeseed meal: The domestic demand has gradually weakened recently. The oil mill operating rate has decreased, the rapeseed supply is relatively low, and the granular rapeseed meal inventory remains high, with overall supply pressure. As of the week of October 24, the rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil mills is 600,000 tons (unchanged from last week), and the rapeseed meal inventory is 710,000 tons (down 70,000 tons from last week). [5] Group 4: Macro - analysis - Recent market is more affected by macro factors. The Sino - US negotiations have released positive signals, leading to a significant increase in the US soybean market. The meeting involves issues such as 301 shipping fees and possible tariff issues for agricultural products. However, the impact on the domestic long - term supply reduction is limited, and the subsequent import volume is still highly uncertain. After the short - term market reaction, the macro impact is expected to be relatively limited, and the market will focus more on fundamental changes. [6] Group 5: Logic Analysis - The market shows a volatile trend. After the previous bullish factors are fully reflected, the upward momentum has decreased. The US soybean market has fully reflected the previous bullish factors and is now in a volatile state. The overall supply in the international soybean market is still relatively loose. The smooth progress of Brazil's new - crop sowing is expected to result in a relatively high yield, with limited price support and obvious overall pressure. The domestic soybean meal supply and demand are relatively loose, and there is still inventory pressure. The rapeseed meal inventory is relatively low, but the demand is also average, and the subsequent import volume is relatively low, with limited price fluctuations. The decline in the monthly spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal today is mainly due to macro factors, and the subsequent decline space is expected to be limited, but there may still be pressure for rapeseed meal monthly spreads due to average demand. [7] Group 6: Trading Strategies - Single - side trading: It is recommended to short the 05 contract [8] - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [8] - Options: Sell a wide - straddle strategy [8] Group 7: Soybean Pressing Profits - Pressing profits vary by origin, shipping date, and contract. For example, for Brazilian soybeans with a December shipping date, the CNF is 243, the CBOT is 999.25, and the contract is F. The exchange rate is 7.0228, the soybean meal price is 2969, the soybean oil price is 8132. The disk pressing profit is -190.08, the spot pressing profit is -211.58, compared with yesterday's -212.23 and -233.73, with a change of 22.15. [9]