Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November, a large quantity of peanuts will be on the market. The new - season peanut production is expected to be higher than last year, and the planting cost has decreased. However, the peanut quality in Henan and other regions is poor, and the supply of oil - grade peanuts is sufficient. The peanut spot price still has room to fall, and the price difference between oil - grade peanuts and general peanuts will widen. The peanut inventory in oil mills is low, and the profit from squeezing is good. It is expected that oil mills will purchase a large amount of oil - grade peanuts in November. The decline space of 01 peanut futures is limited, and it will still fluctuate at the bottom [5][52] - The 01 peanut futures will fluctuate between 7700 - 8000 yuan/ton at the bottom, and the 05 peanut futures will fluctuate between 7800 - 8200 yuan/ton at the bottom. The 01 peanut has strong support at 7700 yuan/ton, and the 01 and 05 peanuts can be short - term long at the bottom. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see. After the peanut futures price drops, sell the pk601 - P - 7600 option [11][52] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. First Part: Preface Summary 1.1 Market Review - In October, the peanut import volume remained low, oil mills had not made large - scale purchases, the peanut quality in Henan and other regions was poor, the peanut spot price dropped significantly, and the peanut price in the Northeast was relatively strong. The downstream demand was still weak, the peanut inventory in oil mills was at a low level, and the operating rate was still low. The prices of peanut oil and peanut meal were relatively weak, but the profit of peanut oil mills was high. Affected by the rainfall in Henan and other regions, the 01 peanut futures first rose and then fell [4] 1.2 Market Outlook - In November, with a large number of peanuts on the market, the new - season peanut production is expected to be higher than last year, and the planting cost has decreased. However, due to the poor peanut quality in Henan and other regions and sufficient supply of oil - grade peanuts, the peanut spot price still has room to fall, and the price difference between oil - grade peanuts and general peanuts will widen. Oil mills have low peanut inventory and good squeezing profit, so they are expected to purchase a large amount of oil - grade peanuts in November. The decline space of 01 peanut futures is limited, and it will still fluctuate at the bottom [5] 1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: Short - term long the 01 peanut futures at 7600 - 8000 yuan/ton. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Option: Sell the pk601 - P - 7600 option after the peanut futures price drops [7] 2. Second Part: International Peanut Situation and Market Review - Global peanut production has increased, but peanut imports have decreased significantly. According to FAS data, the global peanut production in 2025 is expected to be 51.78 million tons, including 19 million tons in China, 7.35 million tons in India, 1.8 million tons in Senegal, and 1 million tons in Sudan. The latest data from the US Department of Agriculture shows that the global peanut production in 2025 is 51.74 million tons, with about 19 million tons in China, 7.35 million tons in India, and 4.3 million tons in Nigeria. In 2024, the global peanut crushing volume was 19.28 million tons, accounting for 37.6%. In 2024, the global imported peanut volume was 4.26 million tons, and the exported peanut volume was 4.82 million tons, accounting for 9.4%. Due to lower - than - expected imports from Sudan and Senegal, the imported peanut volume is significantly lower than last year [8] 3. Third Part: Domestic Peanut Fundamental Situation 3.1 New - season Peanuts are Gradually on the Market, and Peanut Prices in Henan have Dropped Significantly - Affected by rainfall during the peanut harvest, the peanut quality is poor, and oil mills have not made large - scale purchases. The price of general peanuts in Henan has dropped significantly, while the peanut price in the Northeast is still strong. For example, the peanut price in Zhengyang, Henan has dropped from 4.3 yuan/jin to 3.4 yuan/jin, and the general peanut price in the Northeast has remained stable at around 4.1 yuan/jin. As peanuts in Henan are gradually on the market, and the peanut quality is poor, it is expected that the price difference between oil - grade peanuts and general peanuts will widen in the later stage. In November, a large number of peanuts will still be on the market. Due to the current low price, it is expected that oil mills may make large - scale purchases, and the decline space of peanut prices is limited [13] 3.2 Imported Peanuts have Decreased Significantly Year - on - Year, and the Price of Imported Peanuts is Relatively Strong - In September, 34,000 tons of peanut kernels were imported, and from January to September, 164,000 tons of peanut kernels were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 71%. Among them, 17,000 tons were imported from Sudan, 17,000 tons from Senegal, 36,000 tons of shelled peanuts from the United States, 40,000 tons from India, and 16,000 tons from Argentina. From January to September, a total of 115,000 tons of peanut kernels were exported, a year - on - year increase of 24%. According to the seasonal pattern of imports, it is expected that the peanut import volume will still be low in November. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import of peanut oil was 291,000 tons, 47% higher than last year. Due to weak domestic peanut oil consumption and high peanut oil inventory in domestic oil mills, it is expected that imports will remain stable in November [22] 3.3 The Operating Rate of Peanut Oil Mills is Still Low, and the Peanut Inventory in Oil Mills is Still at a Low Level - In October, a large number of peanuts were on the market at a low price. Although oil mills theoretically had squeezing profit, the operating rate was still at a low level, and the peanut inventory in oil mills was still low. As of October 24, the operating rate of peanut oil mills was 7.86%, and the peanut inventory was 35,000 tons, lower than 43,000 tons in the same period last month and 54,000 tons in the same period last year. The price of peanut meal was relatively stable, the price of peanut oil was stable, and the purchase price of peanuts was low, so oil mills had theoretical squeezing profit. As of October 23, the squeezing profit of peanut oil mills was 230 yuan/ton, lower than 290 yuan/ton last month but higher than - 21 yuan/ton in the same period last year. The squeezing profit of oil mills mainly comes from peanut oil. Generally, the contribution ratio of peanut oil and peanut meal to squeezing profit is between 2 - 4. As of the end of October, the profit of peanut oil for oil mills was 3.43 times that of peanut meal, and the theoretical break - even price of peanuts was 7911 yuan/ton. In November, with the concentrated listing of new - season peanuts, oil mills are expected to gradually build up inventory due to profit and low inventory. The operating rate of peanut oil mills will increase, and the peanut inventory will also increase [31] 3.4 The Planting Area of New - season Peanuts has Increased, the Planting Cost has Decreased, and the Production is Higher than Last Year - In 2025, the peanut planting area increased year - on - year. Although there was partial production reduction in some regions such as Henan, the national peanut production was slightly higher than last year. After removing land rent, the planting cost was basically between 600 (excluding seeds) - 800 yuan/ton, mostly 800 yuan/ton, and the seed cost decreased slightly. In some regions such as Henan, which have two crops a year, the planting cost is relatively low. In Jilin, the land rent decreased by 100 - 200 yuan/mu compared with last year. Including land rent, the cost was 1700 yuan/mu. Calculated at 450 jin/mu (peanut kernels), the cost of peanut kernels in Jilin was 3.5 - 3.8 yuan/jin. Considering the impact of rainfall in Henan, the harvest cost increased, but the cost in the Northeast remained stable [48] 4. Fourth Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - Due to continuous rainfall during the peanut harvest in Henan and other regions, there was partial production reduction in some areas, the harvest cost increased, and the peanut quality was poor. However, the national production was slightly higher than last year, the supply of oil - grade peanuts was sufficient, and oil mills had not made large - scale purchases, so the peanut spot price in Henan dropped significantly. In November, a large number of peanuts will still be on the market. Oil mills have profit, the operating rate will increase, and the peanut import volume is expected to remain low. It is expected that oil mills will make large - scale purchases. The decline space of peanut prices in November is limited, and the price difference between oil - grade peanuts and general peanuts will widen. The 01 peanut futures will fluctuate between 7700 - 8000 yuan/ton at the bottom, and the 05 peanut futures will fluctuate between 7800 - 8200 yuan/ton at the bottom [52] - Trading Strategy: The production of new - season peanuts is higher than last year, and the planting cost has decreased. The peanut price in Henan has dropped significantly, but oil mills already have profit, and the peanut inventory in oil mills is low. It is expected that oil mills will make large - scale purchases, and the decline space of peanut prices is limited. However, the peanut oil inventory is still high, and the downstream demand is still weak, so the rebound space of peanuts is also limited. The 01 peanut futures are expected to have support at around 7600 yuan/ton, and the 05 peanut futures have support at 7700 yuan/ton. Operationally, short - term long the 01 and 05 peanut futures at the bottom. For arbitrage, wait and see. After the peanut futures price drops, sell the pk601 - P - 7600 option [52]
花生10月报-20251029
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-10-29 12:05