造纸产业风险管理日报-20251029

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The pulp and offset paper may be relatively volatile in the short term. Some pulp mills are under maintenance, reducing supply - side pressure. However, downstream paper开工率 varies, cultural paper consumption has not continued its positive trend from August, and port inventories are relatively high, restricting pulp prices. For offset paper, price increases by some paper mills are favorable for futures prices, and inventory reduction should be monitored [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Forecast and Volatility - The predicted monthly price range for pulp is 4750 - 5350, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.41% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 17.81%. For offset printing paper, the price range is 4150 - 4250, with a volatility of 6.31% and a historical percentile of 8.69% [2]. Risk Management Strategies - Inventory Management: When inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, sell pulp/offset printing paper futures (SP2601, OP2601) at 25% hedging ratio, with suggested entry ranges of 5300 - 5400 for pulp and 4250 - 4300 for offset paper. Also, sell call options (SP2601C5300, OP2601C4250) at 25% ratio when volatility is appropriate [2]. - Procurement Management: When inventory is low, buy pulp/offset printing paper futures (SP2601, OP2601) at 25% hedging ratio, with entry ranges of 4950 - 5050 for pulp and 4100 - 4150 for offset paper. Sell put options (SP2512P4850, OP2601P4050) at 25% ratio when volatility is appropriate [2]. Market Analysis - Pulp: Spot prices are stable. Some pulp mills' maintenance eases supply - side pressure, but downstream demand is mixed, cultural paper consumption is weak, and high port inventories limit prices. It may wait for the traditional peak season for support [3]. - Offset Paper: Starting from November, many paper mills will raise prices by 200 yuan/ton, which is favorable for futures prices, and the futures price shows a slightly upward - trending volatile pattern. Attention should be paid to inventory reduction [3]. Trading Strategies - Pulp: In the futures market, buy on dips or wait and see; in the options market, sell out - of - the - money put options for far - month contracts [11]. - Offset Paper: In the futures market, sell on rallies; in the options market, wait and see [11]. Factors Affecting the Market - Positive Factors: Paper mills are raising paper prices, there are expectations of a Fed rate cut, and overseas broad - leaf pulp has production cuts and price increases [7][12]. - Negative Factors: There is a possibility of reduced overseas shipping costs, high port inventories are difficult to reduce, and the peak demand season is not prosperous [12]. Price and Spread Data - Futures Prices and Spreads: On October 29, 2025, pulp futures prices (SP11, SP01, SP03) and offset paper futures prices (OP01, OP02, OP03) had different daily and weekly changes, and there were also corresponding price spreads between different contracts [15]. - Spot Prices and Regional Spreads: On October 28, 2025, pulp and double - offset paper spot prices in different regions (Shandong, South China, Jiangsu - Zhejiang - Shanghai, etc.) and their regional spreads are provided [16]. Basis Data - Pulp Basis: The daily changes in pulp basis on October 29, 2025, including different pulp brands and contract combinations, are presented [9]. - Offset Paper Basis: The daily changes in offset paper basis on October 29, 2025, for different mills and contract combinations, are shown [9].