镍与不锈钢日评：成本支撑走弱，不锈钢逢高沽空-20251029

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Nickel: The nickel fundamentals are weak with inventory pressure, but the valuation is at a low level. It is expected that the nickel price will fluctuate at a low level [2]. - Stainless Steel: The fundamentals of stainless steel are loose, and the cost support is weak. It is predicted that the upside space for stainless steel is limited [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market - Price Changes: On October 28, the closing prices of Shanghai nickel futures contracts decreased compared to the previous day. For example, the futures near - month contract closed at 120,300 yuan/ton, down 1,760 yuan from the previous day. The LME 3 - month nickel spot official price was 15,175 dollars/ton, down 120 dollars from the previous day [2]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of Shanghai nickel futures active contract was 156,296 hands (+26,763), and the open interest was 115,046 hands (+6,057) [2]. - Supply and Demand: Ore prices remained flat. Last week, the arrival of nickel ore decreased, and port inventories decreased. Nickel - iron plants' losses deepened. In October, domestic and Indonesian production increased, and nickel - iron inventories decreased. Domestic electrolytic nickel production increased, and export profits expanded. On the demand side, ternary production, stainless - steel plant production increased, and alloy and electroplating demand was stable [2]. - Inventory: Inventories increased in the SHFE, LME, and social inventories, while decreased in the bonded area [2]. Stainless Steel Market - Price Changes: The closing prices of Shanghai stainless - steel futures contracts also decreased. For example, the futures near - month contract closed at 12,755 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan from the previous day. The basis of 304/2B coil - cut edge (Wuxi) average price and the active contract was 65 yuan [2]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the stainless - steel futures active contract was 97,090 hands (-61,294), and the open interest was 100,253 hands (-14,871) [2]. - Supply and Demand: In October, stainless - steel production increased, but the production of 300 - series decreased. Terminal demand was weak [2]. - Cost: The prices of high - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome decreased [2]. - Inventory: SHFE inventory remained unchanged. Last week, the 300 - series social inventory was 61,270 tons (-9,000) [2]. Industry News - Nickel Price Forecast: A survey of 30 industry analysts showed that the average LME spot nickel price in 2025 is expected to be 15,318 dollars/ton, 15,755 dollars/ton in 2026, and 16,813 dollars/ton in 2024. The nickel market is expected to have a supply surplus of 191,000 tons in 2025 and 156,500 tons in 2026 [2]. - Indonesian Nickel Price Index: The Indonesian Nickel Price Index (INPI) data on October 27 showed that the domestic nickel price in Indonesia was relatively stable, with some processed product prices rising slightly [2]. Trading Strategies - Nickel: The trading strategy is to wait and see [2]. - Stainless Steel: It is recommended to short on rallies [2].