银河期货航运日报-20251029

1. Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendations Market Analysis - The potential halving of Sino-US fentanyl tariffs boosted market sentiment, and the EC futures market continued to rise. On October 29, EC2512 closed at 1,871 points, up 4.62% from the previous day. The SCFI European line reported $1,246/TEU on October 24, up 8.8% month-on-month, and the latest SCFIS European line reported 1,312.71 points, up 15.11% month-on-month [5][6]. - Spot freight rates have risen significantly. The final settlement price of the EC2510 contract was 1,161.63 points. The Wall Street Journal reported that the US and China will discuss a trade framework to reduce US tariffs on Chinese goods, and the US may halve the fentanyl - related tariffs on China [6]. Logic Analysis - In terms of spot freight rates, the price difference among major shipping companies has widened again. Some shipping companies have lower SPOT prices due to cargo - collection pressure, but the spot price center is expected to gradually rise. For example, MSK's Shanghai - Rotterdam WK46 weekly quote decreased by $150 compared to last week, and it also released a PSS quote of $300/FEU for the Far East - Northern Europe route [7]. - Different shipping companies have different price quotes for November. It is expected that spot freight rates will gradually rise from November to December, and shipping companies may continue to raise prices. However, the implementation of price increases needs to be monitored [7]. - On the demand side, shipments are expected to improve from November to December, and the impact of possible tariff improvements on the shipment rhythm should be noted. On the supply side, the weekly average capacity of the Shanghai - Northern Europe 5 - port route will be 241,100/260,400/289,200 TEU in October, November, and December respectively, with a slight increase in December [7]. - Regarding Sino - US ship sanctions, there is an expectation of a reduction in port fees. The progress of the Palestine - Israel cease - fire agreement is tortuous and has recently escalated. The sentiment regarding fentanyl tariffs has eased, and the progress of subsequent negotiations should be followed [7]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: For the EC2512 contract, long positions can be reduced and profits can be taken at high prices. The remaining positions can be rolled with a low - buying strategy. Attention should be paid to the Palestine - Israel negotiations, Sino - US tariff negotiations, and port congestion [8][10]. - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [11]. 2. Industry News - The Wall Street Journal reported that if China takes action to cut the export of fentanyl chemicals, the US will halve the 20% fentanyl - related tariffs on Chinese goods (from 20% to 10%). The expected agreement may be adjusted depending on the meeting between the two sides [11]. - The Wall Street Journal reported that the US and China will lower the port fees imposed on each other [12]. - On October 28th, Hamas denied any connection with the attack on Israeli troops in Rafah, southern Gaza, and emphasized its commitment to the current cease - fire agreement. It also stated that the Israeli military's attacks violated the cease - fire agreement and called on mediators to pressure Israel to stop the violations [12]. - Market news reported that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu ordered the military to immediately launch an attack on Gaza [13]. 3. Market Data Futures Market - For different contracts such as EC2512, EC2602, etc., the report provides closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, trading volume change percentages, open interest, and open - interest change percentages [5]. - The report also presents the month - spread structure, including the price differences and their changes between different contracts [5]. Container Freight Rates - It provides the prices, month - on - month and year - on - year changes of various container freight rates, such as SCFIS European line, SCFIS US West line, SCFI comprehensive index, and container freight rates for different routes like Shanghai - West Africa, Shanghai - South Africa, etc. [5]. Fuel Costs - The prices, month - on - month and year - on - year changes of WTI and Brent crude oil near - month contracts are reported [5].