国投期货能源日报-20251029

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ (indicating a clearer short - term bearish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Fuel oil: Not clearly defined by the star system in the given context - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Not clearly defined by the star system in the given context - Asphalt: ★★★ (indicating a clearer short - term bearish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: Not clearly defined by the star system in the given context 2. Core Viewpoints - The rebound space of oil prices is limited, and a strategy combination of shorting crude oil and buying out - of - the - money call options should be considered [2] - For fuel oil, there is short - term support for high - sulfur fuel oil, but the medium - term supply will be loose; low - sulfur fuel oil is weak, but there are potential supports, and the opportunity to go long on the low - high sulfur spread can be considered [2] - The "peak season" demand for asphalt is weaker than expected, and the medium - to - long - term expectation of slower inventory reduction restricts the upside space [3] - The fundamentals of LPG have improved marginally, providing short - term support [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices declined, with the SC12 contract falling 0.81% during the day [2] - The US API crude and refined product inventories decreased more than expected last week, but the US sanctions on Russia have room for maneuver [2] - The easing of Sino - US trade games limits the intensity of sensitive oil sanctions and the upper limit of supply fluctuations [2] - Under the background of continuous production increase by OPEC+ and continuous inventory accumulation pressure, the rebound space of oil prices is limited [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The unilateral trend of fuel oil still follows crude oil [2] - In the short term, the escalation of sanctions on Russia by Europe and the US intensifies the supply risk of high - sulfur fuel oil, and there is support from feedstock demand under the constraint of domestic crude oil quotas in the fourth quarter [2] - In the medium term, the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil tends to be loose due to limited geopolitical risk fermentation, uncertain import policies, increased exports from the Middle East to Asia, and the end of the power generation peak season [2] - The low - sulfur market is weak, with abundant overseas supply and high Asian arrivals, but there may be support from diesel market transmission and seasonal increase in East Asian power generation demand in the fourth quarter [2] - There are signals of weakening relative strength between high - and low - sulfur in the spot market, and the opportunity to go long on the low - high sulfur spread can be considered [2] Asphalt - The asphalt futures fluctuated today [3] - The planned production of refineries in November decreased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month [3] - Terminal demand in the north is blocked by cooling, while that in the south has improved due to better weather, and the terminal demand in Shandong is average [3] - The year - on - year high - growth rate of shipments since October is difficult to sustain [3] - The overall commercial inventory decreased month - on - month, and the "peak season" demand is weaker than expected, restricting the upside space [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - LPG performed relatively strongly in oil product futures today, with the main contract rising 1.2% [4] - The external market price stabilized and rebounded, and the commodity volume and import arrivals of liquefied gas decreased [4] - The improvement of chemical profits has promoted demand growth, and the demand for combustion has improved due to significant cooling in many places [4] - The storage rates of ports and refineries have decreased, and the marginal improvement of fundamentals provides short - term support [4]