银河期货农产品日报-20251029

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: Agricultural Products R & D Report - Apple Daily [1] - Date: October 29, 2024 [1] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [1] Group 2: Market Information Spot Prices - Fuji Apple Price Index: 107.18, down 0.43 from the previous workday [2] - 6 Kinds of Fruit Average Wholesale Price: 7.20, up 0.14 from the previous workday [2] Futures Prices - AP01: 9198, down 40 from yesterday's close [2] - AP05: 9684, down 10 from yesterday's close [2] - AP10: 8510, unchanged from yesterday's close [2] Price Differences - AP01 - AP05: -486, down 30 from the previous trading day [2] - AP05 - AP10: 1174, down 10 from the previous trading day [2] - AP10 - AP01: -688, up 40 from the previous trading day [2] Group 3: Market News - As of September 25, 2025, the apple cold - storage inventory in the main producing areas of China was 14.79 tons, a decrease of 6.02 tons from last week [5] - In August 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 68,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.6%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative export volume was about 532,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.7%. In August 2025, the import volume of fresh apples was 11,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 33.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.3%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume was 98,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22% [5] - In the Shandong production area, the transaction price was stable, and the purchasing enthusiasm of merchants was good. In the northwest production area, it was in the middle and late stages of acquisition, and most of the high - quality goods had been ordered and were being stored in cold storage. The market arrival volume was average, the shipment was stable, and the mainstream price was mainly stable [6] - In the 2024 - 2025 production season, the profit of storage merchants for 80 first - and second - grade apples in Qixia was 0.4 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.1 yuan per catty from last week [7] - In Luochuan, Shaanxi, the mainstream transaction price of apples was stable. For semi - commercial apples above 70, the mainstream transaction price was 3.5 - 4.0 yuan per catty. In Qixia, Shandong, the apple price was stable. The price of new - season paper - bag Fuji apples above 80 first - and second - grade was 3.5 - 4.0 yuan per catty [7] Group 4: Trading Logic - The high - quality fruit rate of new - season apples is poor this year due to weather reasons, with smaller fruit diameters, increased proportions of water cracks and mildew. The low high - quality fruit rate leads to a low apple warehouse - receipt production rate and high warehouse - receipt costs. Also, the poor - quality apples are difficult to preserve, and there are concerns that cold - storage apples may not last until long - term delivery. The expected low storage volume is due to the high cost and difficulty of purchasing high - quality goods by merchants. The apple market has been strong recently, but considering the large increase and high current prices, the upward space may be limited [8] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended that previous long positions take profits and wait and see [9][10] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [18] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [18] Group 6: Related Attached Figures - Figures include prices of Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bag 80 apples, Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bag 70 apples, AP contract main - force basis, price differences between different AP contracts, apple arrival volume in some markets, 6 kinds of fruit prices, national cold - storage apple inventory, and national cold - storage apple delivery volume [12][14][19][21][25]