银河期货鸡蛋日报-20251029

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The supply of laying hens remains at a high level, with the demand side generally weak. Without significant improvement in the short - term, egg prices are expected to remain weak. However, the recent increase in the number of culled chickens and downstream replenishment has led to a slight rebound in spot prices. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Futures Prices: JD01 closed at 3368, up 64 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3477, up 33; JD09 closed at 3863, up 26 [2]. - Cross - month Spreads: The 01 - 05 spread was - 109, up 31; the 05 - 09 spread was - 386, up 7; the 09 - 01 spread was 495, down 38 [2]. - Price Ratios: The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.59, up 0.04; the 01 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.13, up 0.02, etc. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Egg Prices: The average price in the main production areas was 2.86 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin from the previous day; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.14 yuan/jin, unchanged [2][4]. - Culled Chicken Prices: The average price of culled chickens in the main production areas was 4 yuan/jin, down 0.02 yuan/jin from the previous day [2][6]. 3.3 Profit Calculation - Profit per Chicken: The profit was 0.27 yuan/feather, down 2.20 yuan from the previous day [2]. - Feed Prices: The average price of corn was 2243, up 2; the average price of bean meal was 3032, unchanged; the price of laying hen compound feed was 2.48, unchanged [2] 3.4 Fundamental Information - Egg Price Trends: The national mainstream egg prices were mixed, with prices in some areas stable and others falling. Egg prices continued to fluctuate and consolidate, with average sales [4]. - Laying Hen Inventory: In September, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.368 billion, an increase of 30 million from the previous month and a 6% year - on - year increase. It is estimated that the inventory from October 2025 to January 2026 will be approximately 1.36 billion, 1.36 billion, 1.356 billion, and 1.347 billion respectively [5]. - Chick Hatchlings: In September, the monthly hatchling volume of sample enterprises was 39.2 million, a 1.5% month - on - month decrease and a 14% year - on - year decrease [5]. - Culled Chicken Volume: From October 24th to the end of the week, the culling volume of laying hens in the main production areas was 20.02 million, a 1.4% decrease from the previous week. The average culling age was 499 days, unchanged from the previous week [5]. - Egg Sales Volume: As of the week of October 25th, the egg sales volume in representative sales areas was 7498 tons, a 1.6% increase from the previous week [5]. - Profit and Inventory: As of October 23rd, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.22 yuan/jin, down 0.09 yuan/jin from the previous week. As of October 24th, the expected profit of laying hen farming was - 0.51 yuan/feather, down 2.79 yuan/jin from the previous week. As of October 17th, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.04 days, a decrease of 0.01 days from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.1 days, unchanged from the previous week [5][6] 3.5 Trading Strategy - Single - side Trading: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [8]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [8] 3.6 Related Charts The report provides 15 charts, including those on egg prices in the main production and sales areas, chick prices, culled chicken prices, feed costs, laying hen inventory, spreads, basis, and profit trends [11][15][19]