银河期货有色金属衍生品日报-20251029

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The mid - term upward trend of copper continues, but there is a risk of short - term retracement; alumina prices may rebound slightly but are suppressed by over - supply and imports; aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and bullish; ADC12 aluminum alloy ingot prices will remain strong and volatile; zinc prices may be long on dips; lead prices may decline; nickel prices are weak and volatile; stainless steel prices are recommended to be short on rebounds; tin prices are affected by macro - sentiment and demand expectations; industrial silicon prices can be traded with a high - throw and low - suck strategy; polysilicon prices suggest reducing short - term long positions and buying on dips; lithium carbonate prices can be bought on pullbacks [1][9][17][22][27][34][38][43][51][56][64][69] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Market Review: The Shanghai copper 2512 contract closed at 88,710 yuan/ton, up 1.16%, with an increase of 22,023 lots in the Shanghai copper index. Shanghai spot copper was at a discount of 60 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - Important Information: The "small non - farm" ADP released weekly employment data; Trump may influence the Fed; CMOC will invest 1.08 billion US dollars to expand its KFM copper mine; Anglo American's Q3 copper production increased; First Quantum's Q3 copper production and guidance production changed [1] - Logic Analysis: Sino - US relations have eased, and the macro - sentiment has improved. The supply of copper mines is more disrupted, and the processing fee is expected to decline. The supply is relatively tight, and consumption is weak [1][3] - Trading Strategy: Go long on dips for the mid - term; hold inter - market positive spreads; wait and see for options [4][5][6] Alumina - Market Review: The alumina 2601 contract rose 40 yuan to 2,879 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 11,116 lots in positions. Spot prices in most regions were stable, with some declines in Guangxi and Guizhou [7] - Related Information: Tangshan launched a heavy - pollution emergency response; a Yunnan electrolytic aluminum enterprise purchased alumina; Australian alumina prices changed; domestic alumina production capacity increased [8] - Logic Analysis: Alumina supply and demand are still in significant surplus, but there are expectations of production cuts, which drive prices to rebound slightly, but are restricted by production cuts not being implemented and imports [9][11] - Trading Strategy: There is an expectation of further production cuts in November, with short - term narrow - range fluctuations; wait and see for arbitrage and options [12][13] Electrolytic Aluminum - Market Review: The Shanghai aluminum 2512 contract rose 75 yuan to 21,295 yuan/ton, with an increase of 13,871 lots in positions. Spot prices in different regions changed slightly [15] - Related Information: Sino - US leaders will meet; the "14th Five - Year Plan" suggestions were released; aluminum inventories decreased; Century Aluminum's Icelandic smelter had a production reduction [15][16] - Trading Logic: The global trade situation has eased, and there are expectations of interest rate cuts. Overseas production cuts intensify supply - demand concerns, and domestic consumption has resilience, so aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and bullish [17] - Trading Strategy: Aluminum prices are volatile and bullish [18] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Review: The cast aluminum alloy 2512 contract rose 65 yuan to 20,690 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1,342 lots in positions. Spot prices in different regions were stable [20] - Related Information: Sino - US leaders will meet; the "14th Five - Year Plan" suggestions were released; cast aluminum alloy warehouse receipts and social inventories changed [20][21] - Trading Logic: The macro - expectation is improving. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the industry supply is shrinking. Demand is resilient, so prices will remain strong and volatile [22] - Trading Strategy: Aluminum alloy prices are strong and volatile; wait and see for arbitrage and options [23] Zinc - Market Review: The Shanghai zinc 2512 rose 0.27% to 22,430 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1,255 lots in positions. The spot market was cautious in purchasing [25] - Related Information: An Inner Mongolia lead - zinc mine resumed production and may stop production in winter; domestic zinc ingot inventories changed [26] - Logic Analysis: Domestic smelters' winter storage has expanded, and processing fees have decreased, squeezing smelter profits. Consumption may weaken. Overseas inventories are low, and LME zinc prices are strong [27] - Trading Strategy: Go long on dips; consider advance layout for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options [28] Lead - Market Review: The Shanghai lead 2512 fell 0.4% to 17,355 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 566 lots in positions. Spot prices decreased, and downstream procurement willingness declined [31] - Related Information: Some lead - battery enterprises plan to reduce or stop production; a lead smelter in North China stopped for maintenance; a lead - zinc mine in Inner Mongolia resumed production; lead inventories decreased [32][33] - Logic Analysis: Some lead - battery enterprises reduce production to avoid inventory risks, while the supply of recycled lead may increase, so lead prices may decline [34] - Trading Strategy: Hold profitable short positions; wait and see for arbitrage; continue to hold sold out - of - the - money call options [35][36] Nickel - Market Review: The main Shanghai nickel contract NI2512 rose 410 to 121,540 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 2,144 lots in the index positions. Spot premiums changed [37] - Important Information: Indonesia and Brazil strengthened cooperation; a nickel company's performance and production quota plans; Indonesia promoted the downstream development of nickel resources; the Indonesian nickel price index was stable [38] - Logic Analysis: Precious metals' correction led to a decline in non - ferrous metals. LME nickel inventories are increasing, and the upside of nickel prices is limited, showing a weak and volatile trend [38] - Trading Strategy: Nickel prices are weak and volatile; wait and see for arbitrage; sell a wide - straddle combination of the 2512 contract [38][39] Stainless Steel - Market Review: The stainless steel main contract SS2512 rose 40 to 12,805 yuan/ton, with an increase of 2,342 lots in positions. Spot prices were in a certain range [42] - Important Information: Some steel mills plan to reduce production; Taiwan's stainless steel industry is under cost pressure [43] - Logic Analysis: Terminal demand in October is not optimistic, and the supply of 200 - series stainless steel is reduced. The cost support is not strong, and prices face resistance [43] - Trading Strategy: Short on rebounds; wait and see for arbitrage [44][45] Tin - Market Review: The main Shanghai tin 2512 contract closed at 286,720 yuan/ton, up 1,850 yuan/ton or 0.65%. Spot prices rose, but the market acceptance was low [47] - Related Information: The "14th Five - Year Plan" suggestions were released; the APEC meeting will be held; the US plans to cooperate with South Korea; ADP released US employment data [50] - Logic Analysis: The market focuses on the Fed's interest - rate decision. The supply of tin mines is tight, and production in September decreased. Demand is slowly recovering [51] - Trading Strategy: Affected by macro - sentiment and demand expectations; wait and see for options [52][53] Industrial Silicon - Important Information: Five departments issued a plan to regulate the market order [55] - Logic Analysis: The operating rate of northwest silicon plants is high, and southwest plants will stop furnaces. Demand from organic silicon and aluminum alloys is stable, and polysilicon production is expected to decrease. There may be inventory reduction, and prices are recommended to be traded with a high - throw and low - suck strategy [56][58] - Strategy Suggestion: High - throw and low - suck, buy on dips; no arbitrage opportunity; sell out - of - the - money put options [59][60][61] Polysilicon - Important Information: Five departments issued a plan to regulate the market order [63] - Logic Analysis: Southwest polysilicon production capacity reduces the operating load, and production in November is expected to decrease. Demand is expected to be poor, but there is still resilience. There will be inventory accumulation, but at a reduced rate. The price is under short - term pressure [64] - Strategy Suggestion: Reduce short - term long positions and buy on dips; conduct reverse arbitrage on far - month contracts; hold bought call options [65][66][67] Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: The lithium carbonate 2601 contract rose 660 to 82,900 yuan/ton, with an increase of 13,378 lots in positions and an increase of 190 in Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts. Spot prices increased [69] - Important Information: Some companies obtained lithium - related mining rights or signed cooperation agreements [70] - Logic Analysis: Demand is driven by power and energy storage, and supply is tight. Inventory and warehouse receipts are decreasing. The market is bullish, and prices are rising [69][70] - Trading Strategy: Buy on pullbacks; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money put options [71][72][73]