国投期货软商品日报-20251029

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Pulp: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term balance between long and short trends with poor operability on the current market [1] - Sugar: ★★★, showing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Apple: ★★★, representing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Log: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆, meaning a bullish drive but poor operability on the market [1] - 20 - rubber: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish drive but poor operability on the market [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish drive but poor operability on the market [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, natural rubber, pulp, log, etc., and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply - demand relationships, price trends, and macro - economic factors [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose today. Spot cotton prices were stable, and the Xinjiang cotton purchase price was slightly stronger, raising new cotton costs. As of October 26, the national cumulative cotton inspection volume was 135.55 million tons. The peak season was weak, with insufficient new orders for cotton yarn spinning enterprises. Zhengzhou cotton's short - term rise was a rebound with limited space. It's recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. Brazil's sugar production will remain high. In the Northern Hemisphere, India and Thailand are about to start squeezing, with expected increased production. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar was relatively strong, with potential syrup import control. The market focused on the next season's output estimate. Sugar prices are expected to remain weak [3] Apple - The futures price was strong. High - quality apples' prices were stable, while low - quality ones were weak. High - quality apples were in short supply, and low - quality ones had inventory pressure. The market focused on cold - storage inventory. National apple bagging volume decreased slightly year - on - year, and production might be adjusted down. New - season cold - storage initial inventory might be higher than expected. It's recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Stimulated by the news of Sino - US leaders' meeting, RU&NR fluctuated up, and BR first declined then rose. Global natural rubber supply was in the high - yield period. Last week, domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate rose slightly. Tire operating rate recovered slightly, and product inventory increased. Qingdao's natural rubber inventory decreased, while butadiene rubber social inventory increased. The strategy is to bet on a rebound and focus on cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [5] Pulp - Pulp futures rose slightly today. As of October 23, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports was 2.055 billion tons, a decrease of 190,000 tons from the previous period. In September, domestic pulp imports increased year - on - year. Supply was relatively loose, and demand was average. It's recommended to wait and see or do short - term operations [6] Log - The futures price was weak. Spot prices were stable. In October, New Zealand radiata pine quotes increased. Domestic importers' willingness declined. Port outbound volume was over 60,000 cubic meters, and inventory was low. Low inventory supported prices. It's recommended to wait and see [7]