黑色金属日报-20251029

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ★☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The steel market is expected to remain strong in the short - term, with attention on demand changes and domestic demand stimulus policies [2] - The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate at a high level [3] - The coke price is likely to be more prone to rise than fall [4] - The coking coal price is likely to be more prone to rise than fall [6] - The silicon manganese price follows the steel trend [7] - The ferrosilicon price follows the steel trend [8] Summary by Commodity Steel - The thread's apparent demand is warming up, production has increased, and inventory has decreased. The hot - rolled demand is rising, production is flat, and inventory has decreased. Iron - water production is high, and downstream capacity is insufficient. The negative feedback pressure in the industrial chain needs to be alleviated. Domestic demand is weak, and exports are high. The market may be strong in the short - term [2] Iron Ore - Supply: Global shipments are high and stronger than last year, while domestic arrivals are below the annual average, and port inventory has slightly decreased. Demand: Iron - water production is falling, and steel mills' profitability is low. There is a production - cut pressure. The market may fluctuate at a high level [3] Coke - There is an expectation of a third price increase. Coking profit is average, and daily production has decreased slightly. Inventory is almost unchanged. The price may be more prone to rise than fall [4] Coking Coal - There is short - term production - cut pressure on iron - water due to environmental protection in Tangshan. Coal mine production has decreased slightly, and inventory has increased. The price may be more prone to rise than fall [6] Silicon Manganese - Iron - water production is high, and there may be a decline due to Tangshan's production restrictions. Production has slightly decreased, inventory has slightly decreased, and the price follows the steel trend [7] Ferrosilicon - Iron - water production is high, and there may be a decline due to Tangshan's production restrictions. Export demand is stable, and the price follows the steel trend [8]