苹果周报：新季果质量一般客商采购积极-20251029

Report Overview - Report Title: Apple Weekly: The Quality of New Season Apples is Average, and Merchants are Actively Purchasing [1] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [1] - Industry: Apple Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The late Fuji apples in the new season are increasing in supply, but the picking, storage, and demand are facing challenges. The price of high - quality apples is stable, while the price of ordinary apples is chaotic. The futures price is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term due to the expected low excellent fruit rate [6][15]. Summary by Section Part 1: Logical Analysis and Trading Strategies 1. Spot Analysis - New season late Fuji apples: The supply increased this week, with the picking and storage progress lagging behind last year. In the western region, the trading of late Fuji is entering the middle and late stages, and merchants are actively buying high - quality apples but cautious about ordinary ones. In Shandong, the supply is limited, and it's difficult for merchants to buy enough high - quality apples. The trading in the sales area is still sluggish, and the demand is under pressure [6]. - Main producing area prices: In Shandong, the prices of 85 first - and second - grade late Fuji are 4 - 4.5 yuan/jin, 80 first - and second - grade are 3.5 - 4.0 yuan/jin, 80 first - and second - grade semi - are 3.3 - 3.5 yuan/jin, and the general goods are 2.0 - 3.0 yuan/jin. In Shaanxi, the prices of Luochuan 70 and above semi - commercial apples are around 3.7 - 4.2 yuan/jin, and the general goods are 3.4 - 3.6 yuan/jin. The labor cost in the producing area is high [6]. 2. Supply Analysis - Cold storage inventory: The cold storage inventory statistics are suspended. As of October 9, 2025, the cold storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 6.79 tons. The 2024 - 2025 production season inventory has ended, and the 2025 - 2026 production season is in the purchasing stage. The national storage volume in 2025 is expected to be counted from late October to early November [11]. 3. Demand Analysis - Sales area situation: In the Guangdong Chalong market, the number of daily arrivals is about 24.6 vehicles. The sales of high - quality new season late Fuji are okay, while the sales of ordinary ones are slow, and there is inventory pressure in the transit warehouse. The average wholesale price of 6 key fruits on October 24 was 7.02 yuan/kg, at a medium level in recent years. The profit of storage merchants in Qixia is suspended from statistics. The market arrival volume increased this week, the sales speed is stable, the mainstream transaction price is stable, and the profit margin of traders is large [14]. 4. Trading Strategies - Trading logic: Due to the small fruit diameter in some areas of Shaanxi and the water - crack problem caused by continuous rainfall, the excellent fruit rate of late - maturing Fuji is expected to be low. The opening price of late - maturing Fuji is high, and the cost of making futures warehouse receipts is high. The futures price is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term [15]. - Strategies: Unilateral: Apple prices are expected to be slightly stronger in the short term due to the expected low excellent fruit rate. Arbitrage: Go long on November contracts and short on January contracts. Options: It is recommended to wait and see [15]. Part 2: Weekly Data Tracking 1. Apple Supply and Demand Situation - No specific text data provided, but there are charts showing apple export volume, planting area, consumption, production, and deep - processing volume from 2018 - 2023 [19]. 2. Inventory and Shipment (Mysteel) - No specific text data provided, but there are charts showing the cold storage inventory and shipment volume trends of apples in China, Shandong, and Shaanxi from 2016/17 - 2024/25 [22][23]. 3. Spread and Basis - No specific text data provided, but there are charts showing the basis of January, May, and October contracts and the spreads between 1 - 5, 5 - 10, and 10 - 1 contracts from 2019 - 2026 [26].