国投期货化工日报-20251029

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - Polypropylene: ★★★ [1] - Plastic: ★★★ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - PX: ★☆★ [1] - PTA: ★☆★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Short Fiber: ★☆★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★☆☆ [1] - Olefins: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The olefins - polyolefins market is affected by factors such as international oil prices and downstream demand, with futures contracts showing narrow - range fluctuations [2]. - The pure benzene - styrene market faces challenges like high - volume imports and weak cost support, with prices likely to remain weak [3]. - The polyester market has different trends for each product. PTA may face supply pressure and potential inventory accumulation; ethylene glycol has a short - term inventory decline but a mid - term accumulation expectation; short fiber may experience inventory changes; bottle chip demand is weakening [5]. - The coal - chemical market has methanol facing inventory and demand issues, with a short - term weak trend but a potential to stop falling; urea may have a short - term rebound [6]. - The chlor - alkali market has PVC following macro - sentiment with a weak fundamental situation, and caustic soda facing supply pressure and low - price operation [7]. - The soda ash - glass market has soda ash influenced by cost and macro - sentiment, with a long - term oversupply situation; glass shows a bottom - rising trend but with limited downstream demand [8]. Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuate narrowly, affected by falling international oil prices and weakening downstream demand [2]. - Plastic and polypropylene futures also fluctuate narrowly. PE has inventory pressure and price resistance from downstream; PP has little market change at the end of the month [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures rebound slightly, but face pressure from high imports and potential port inventory accumulation [3]. - Styrene futures remain weak due to factors like weak cost, limited port de - stocking, and unplanned device outages with limited impact [3]. Polyester - PX and PTA prices are affected by external sentiment and supply - demand factors. PTA has supply pressure but a short - term positive sentiment, with a mid - term inventory accumulation risk [5]. - Ethylene glycol follows the external market, with production increasing and short - term inventory decline but mid - term accumulation expected [5]. - Short fiber has a good spot pattern but may face inventory accumulation again; bottle chip demand weakens with long - term over - capacity pressure [5]. Coal - Chemical - Methanol rebounds slightly, with port inventory decreasing slightly but facing uncertainties in future supply. It is expected to be weak in the short - term but may stop falling [6]. - Urea inventory decreases, and the short - term market may have a phased rebound due to support from demand and coal prices [6]. Chlor - Alkali - PVC rises with market sentiment but has a weak fundamental situation, with potential supply increase and weak demand [7]. - Caustic soda prices fluctuate narrowly, with supply increasing and downstream demand weak, expected to run at a low level [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices are strong due to cost increase and market news, with a long - term oversupply situation [8]. - Glass prices show a bottom - rising trend, affected by cost and downstream demand, with limited decline space [8].