【化工视点】你问我答：玻璃底部是否已现？

Report Core View - Glass bottom was likely formed in June, and currently it's difficult for the market to break the previous low due to policy and cost changes [4] - The glass market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectation, and the market has shifted to trading strong expectation at low valuations [3] - There is significant uncertainty on the supply side, and the follow - up supply - side policies and production line switching need continuous attention [5] Industry Investment Rating - There is no clear industry investment rating provided in the report Summary by Related Questions How to view the decline of glass futures after National Day and the subsequent rebound - Before National Day, supply - side news stimulated downstream stockpiling; after National Day, the expectation was not fulfilled, leading to a decline in futures prices. Then, due to low valuation, cost support, and possible supply - side disturbances, the futures price rebounded [2] How to view the current dominant factors and trading logic of the glass market - The glass market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectation. With the low valuation, the market trades the strong expectation. The cost has increased, and it's difficult for the price to break the previous low. The fuel switch in Shahe may be a market focus [3] Whether the bottom of the glass market has appeared and the firmness of the bottom - The bottom of glass was considered to have appeared in June. Currently, due to policy and cost changes, it's hard for the market to break the previous low [4] Uncertainties in the glass market, variables in the fourth quarter, and how to grasp the later trend - Supply - side has great uncertainty, including the impact of anti - involution policies and the fuel switch in Shahe. Strategies include going long on glass at low positions, multi - glass and short - soda ash arbitrage, and holding short glass out - of - the - money put options [5]