棉花、棉纱日报-20251029

Group 1: Market Information - The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts were 13620, 13625, and 13780 respectively, with a rise of 55 each; CY01 and CY05 contracts closed at 19865 and 19775, up 100 and 25 respectively, while CY09 remained at 0 [2]. - The trading volume of CF01 contract was 185,465 hands, an increase of 63550, and the open - interest was 578,488, a decrease of 596 [2]. - CCIndex3128B price was 14840 yuan/ton, up 7; Cot A was 75.95 cents/pound [2]. - The 1 - month to 5 - month spread of cotton was - 5, unchanged; the 1 - month to 5 - month spread of棉纱 was 90, up 75 [2]. Group 2: Market News and Views Cotton Market - On October 29, 2025, the road transportation price index of Xinjiang - outbound cotton was 0.1803 yuan/ton·km, remaining flat, and it's expected to fluctuate upward in the short term [4]. - As of October 27, 2025, the cotton picking progress in Xinjiang was about 82.8%, with different progress in southern, northern, and eastern Xinjiang, and the picking is expected to end soon [4]. - In July 2025, the EU's clothing import value was $20.269 billion, up 18.6% year - on - year and 22.45% month - on - month [5]. - The supply - side acquisition is at its peak with stable prices around 6.2 yuan/kg, and the demand - side changes little. After the Sino - US economic and trade consultations, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term [6]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: US cotton is likely to fluctuate, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be slightly stronger [7]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [8]. - Options: Wait and see [9]. Cotton Yarn Industry - The Zhengzhou cotton futures fluctuated at night, with obvious hedging pressure. The cotton yarn market had a tepid transaction, with stable prices, weakening downstream demand, and small and urgent orders [11]. - The cotton grey fabric market was dull, with smooth sales at cost, large losses, and difficulty in order connection [11]. Group 3: Options - On October 28, 2025, the closing price of CF601C13400.CZC was 240, down 10.4%; the closing price of CF601P13000.CZC was 29, down 63.8%; the closing price of CF601P12400.CZC was 8, down 85.2% [13]. - The 120 - day HV of cotton was 8.0835, slightly lower than the previous day. The implied volatilities of CF601 - C - 13400, CF601 - P - 13000, and CF601 - P - 12400 were 7.5%, 10%, and 13.5% respectively [13]. - The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7379 for open - interest and 0.6827 for trading volume, and both call and put trading volumes decreased [14]. - Option strategy: Wait and see [15]. Group 4: Related Attachments - There are eight figures including the 1% tariff price difference between domestic and foreign cotton markets, the 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month basis of cotton, CY05 - CF05 and CY01 - CF01 spreads, and CF9 - 1, CF5 - 9 spreads [16][20][26][28].