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沪电股份(002463):加速扩充高阶产能,静待产能瓶颈打开大放异彩

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company has accelerated the expansion of high-end production capacity, anticipating a significant performance boost once capacity constraints are alleviated [1] - The company reported a revenue of 13.51 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 49.96%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.72 billion yuan, up 47.03% year-on-year [8] - The demand for AI is robust, driving continuous high growth in performance, with the company benefiting from structural demand for printed circuit boards in high-performance computing and AI applications [8] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 18.23 billion yuan, 23.88 billion yuan, and 32.70 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 3.90 billion yuan, 5.17 billion yuan, and 7.24 billion yuan for the same years [8] Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 50.19 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 39.92% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.62% [8] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 35.84%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.9 percentage points but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 1.47 percentage points due to increased stock incentive costs and other factors [8] - The company has maintained high levels of capital expenditure, with cash payments for fixed assets and other long-term assets amounting to approximately 1.39 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 and 715 million yuan in Q3 2025 [8] Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve a revenue growth rate of 36.6% in 2025, followed by 31.0% in 2026 and 36.9% in 2027 [7] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 2.03 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 39.5 [7] - The return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to increase to 27.0% in 2025 and further to 32.6% by 2027 [7]