Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-29 14:11Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Driven by optimistic trade sentiment, the two meals have rebounded synchronously recently, and rapeseed meal will continue to fluctuate strongly. The trade policies between China and Canada and between China and the US should be monitored [2]. - International trade relations are expected to improve, causing rapeseed oil prices to decline again. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term. The trade policy direction between China and Canada should be continuously monitored [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures closing prices of rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, and domestic rapeseed decreased, while ICE rapeseed futures increased. Most of the month - to - month spreads, positions, and net long positions decreased, and the number of rapeseed oil warrants remained unchanged while that of rapeseed meal decreased [2]. Spot Market - Spot prices of rapeseed oil and soybean oil decreased, while that of rapeseed meal increased. The average price of rapeseed oil decreased, and the import cost of rapeseed increased. The oil - meal ratio decreased, and the basis of the main contracts of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal increased. The spot price differences between rapeseed oil and soybean oil, and between rapeseed oil and palm oil decreased, and the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal also decreased [2]. Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production is expected to increase, and China's rapeseed imports decreased. The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills decreased, and the weekly startup rate of imported rapeseed decreased. The import cost of rapeseed increased, and the import rapeseed crushing profit increased [2]. Industry Situation - The import volume of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal increased, while the inventory of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal in coastal and eastern regions decreased. The weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal decreased [2]. Downstream Situation - The production of feed and edible vegetable oil increased, and the total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry increased [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options of rapeseed meal decreased, and the historical volatility of 20 - day and 60 - day rapeseed meal decreased and increased respectively. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options of rapeseed oil increased, and the historical volatility of 20 - day and 60 - day rapeseed oil decreased [2]. Industry News - ICE rapeseed futures rose due to continued optimism about China - US trade negotiations in the Chicago soybean market. The US soybean harvest rate reached 84%, and the supply - side pressure continued to restrain its market price. China and the US held economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, and President Xi Jinping will meet with President Trump in Busan, South Korea [2]. Rapeseed Meal Summary - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The trade optimism supports the sharp rise of the US soybean market price, and domestic rapeseed meal continues to fluctuate strongly [2]. Rapeseed Oil Summary - The harvest of Canadian rapeseed is over, and the supply - side pressure is high. The GAPKI expects an increase in Indonesian palm oil production, and the B50 biodiesel plan is uncertain. The initial ruling on anti - dumping policies for Canadian rapeseed has been implemented, and domestic rapeseed oil will continue to reduce inventory, but the demand is mainly for rigid needs [3]. Key Focus - Monitor the rapeseed startup rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventory in various regions on Myagric website on Monday, as well as the trade relations between China and Canada and between China and the US [3]