股债恒定ETF将至，债市迎来新变量？：固定收益点评

Report's Core Questions - The report aims to address the impact of the issuance of fixed stock-bond ETFs on the bond market [4][6][11] Group 1: Characteristics of Fixed Stock-Bond Index - Index Composition: The fixed stock-bond index combines stocks and bonds. It has various stock-bond ratios and is linked to different underlying indices. The stock side mainly includes large-cap dividend and low-volatility indices, while the bond side focuses on interest rate bonds, emphasizing low volatility and stability [6][11][12] - Core Mechanism: The index performs passive rebalancing regularly to maintain the preset stock-bond ratio. This mechanism helps prevent chasing up and selling down and acts as a stabilizer in extreme market fluctuations [6][15] Group 2: Impact on the Bond Market - Incremental Funds: Fixed stock-bond ETFs are expected to bring incremental allocation funds to interest rate bonds and high-grade credit bonds [6][17][19] - Market Behavior: Through rebalancing operations, these ETFs can smooth out large fluctuations in the bond market and reduce the extremity of the stock-bond seesaw effect. However, the concentrated rebalancing of the index may cause short-term pulse impacts [6][17][19] Group 3: Variables Affecting the Degree of Impact - Actual Product Scale: In the short term, the scale of fixed stock-bond ETFs may be limited, and their impact on the stock and bond markets may gradually emerge as market participation increases and a scale trend forms [6][19] - Investor Redemption Behavior: Concentrated redemptions during large market fluctuations may force funds to reduce their stock and bond holdings simultaneously, amplifying market volatility [6][19]