TSC(SZ:000877) Changjiang Securities·2025-10-29 15:28Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 54.9 billion yuan for Q3 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 10.6%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -1.18 billion yuan, an increase of 68.5% year-on-year [2][5]. - The expected performance for 2025-2026 is projected at 4 billion and 14 billion yuan, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 103 and 30 times, respectively [7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company's revenue was 18.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 12.9%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -260 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.6% [13]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company sold 144.1 million tons of cement, a decrease of 12.8% year-on-year, which is greater than the industry average decline [13]. - The company managed to reduce costs in cement and concrete, leading to a reduction in operating losses despite the decline in revenue [13]. Market Conditions - The core downstream sectors, real estate and infrastructure, are under dual pressure, with national cement production continuing to decline [13]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) was 37.15 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%, while real estate development investment fell by 13.9% [13]. Industry Outlook - The report anticipates that supply-side governance will provide price recovery elasticity, with expectations for improved production order and increased price levels if production strictly adheres to approved capacities [13]. - The company, as a leading player in the industry, is expected to play a positive role in policy execution and has significant marginal price elasticity due to its low profit levels [13].