10月FOMC会议点评：美联储12月降息可能性仍较大

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve announced a continued rate cut of 25 basis points, bringing the target range to 3.75%-4.0%[4] - The Fed will end its balance sheet reduction on December 1, 2025, marking a pause in quantitative tightening[4] - There were two dissenting votes during the meeting, indicating internal disagreement on the decision[4] Group 2: Economic Conditions - The Fed noted that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace, with employment growth slowing and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, which remains low[4] - Inflation is acknowledged to be at a high level, with recent data suggesting a marginal easing in inflation pressures[6] - The ongoing government shutdown and recent layoffs in the tech sector contribute to increased economic downside risks[6] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, the Dow Jones index fell by 0.16%, while the Nasdaq index rose by 0.55%[7] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose above 4.0% after the announcement[7] - The probability of a rate cut in December is now over 60%, according to CME futures pricing[7]