Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and Powell's hawkish stance reduced the expectation of a December rate cut, leading to a short - term profit - taking logic for gold [1][13]. - The Fed's rate cut and Powell's warning on a December rate cut led to a decline in market risk appetite and a rebound in the US dollar index [2][16]. - The start of the central enterprise strategic emerging industry development special fund and the positive news of Sino - US trade negotiations boosted the A - share market, and it is recommended to allocate various stock indices evenly [18][19]. - The performance of technology giants in the US supported the stock index, but the market risk appetite decreased due to the uncertainty of a December rate cut, and it is recommended to maintain a slightly bullish view in the short term [23]. - The bond market was slightly bullish in the short term, but the room for further strengthening was limited, and it is necessary to grasp the rhythm when going long [26][27]. - The supply of soybeans in the fourth quarter is expected to be sufficient, and the price of soybean meal futures is expected to be volatile [30]. - Zhengzhou cotton continued to strengthen due to positive external news, but the upside space is limited [36]. - Steel prices may be volatile and slightly bullish in the short term, but the upside space is limited [40]. - The price of thermal coal is expected to decline slightly in the short term and remain strong in the fourth quarter [42]. - The price of live pigs is expected to be volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to short on rallies [43]. - The price of iron ore followed the market slightly, but it is recommended to remain cautious and wait and see [45]. - The futures market of red dates is in a state of long - short game, and it is recommended to wait and see [47]. - The fundamentals of corn starch are better than expected, and there is still room for the price to strengthen [48]. - The price of corn is expected to be stable in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [51]. - The price of nickel is expected to rise gradually, and it is recommended to go long on dips [53]. - The spot price of polysilicon is expected to remain flat, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions in a timely manner [58]. - The price of lead may remain strong in the short term, and it is recommended to be cautious when going long [62]. - The price of zinc may be volatile and slightly bullish in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [63]. - The price of industrial silicon may have a lower limit, and it is recommended to go long on dips [66]. - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to be range - bound in the short term, and it is recommended to short after the demand peaks [68]. - The price of crude oil is expected to be volatile in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to geopolitical conflicts and OPEC+ meetings [71]. - The price of methanol is expected to be bearish, and it is recommended to hold short positions [73]. - The price of PVC may rebound slightly, but the upside space is limited due to weak supply - demand [75]. - The price of PTA may be slightly bullish in the short term, and it is recommended to hold long positions and wait and see [77]. - The valuation of the pure benzene - styrene industry chain is restricted, and it is necessary to pay attention to the Sino - US summit and oil prices [80]. - The downside space of soda ash is limited in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to coal prices and new capacity [81]. - The price of float glass may be under pressure in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [83]. - The container freight index is affected by macro - disturbances, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [84]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00% and will end the balance - sheet reduction on December 1st. There were differences among Fed officials on the rate cut. Powell's hawkish stance reduced the expectation of a December rate cut, and the short - term gold price is under pressure [12][13]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump said he reached a trade agreement with South Korea. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and will stop shrinking the balance sheet in December. Powell warned that a December rate cut is not certain, leading to a decline in market risk appetite and a rebound in the US dollar index [14][16]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The central enterprise strategic emerging industry development special fund with an initial scale of 51 billion yuan was launched. The A - share market was strong, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 4000 points. It is recommended to allocate various stock indices evenly [18][19]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Microsoft's revenue increased nearly 20% last quarter, and Google's Q3 performance exceeded expectations. However, due to the uncertainty of a December rate cut, the market risk appetite decreased, and the US stock index was under pressure. It is recommended to maintain a slightly bullish view in the short term [21][23]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The Sino - US leaders will meet, and the central bank conducted 557.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. The bond market was slightly bullish in the short term, but the room for further strengthening was limited [25][26]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The estimated arrival of soybeans at domestic oil mills in November is about 9.685 million tons, and the production in Brazil and Paraguay in the 25/26 season is expected to increase. The price of soybean meal futures is expected to be volatile [28][30]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Pakistan's cotton production decreased significantly. The port cotton inventory is expected to rebound. Zhengzhou cotton continued to strengthen due to positive news, but the upside space is limited [32][36]. 2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Thailand and Vietnam launched anti - circumvention investigations on Chinese steel products. The completion of transportation fixed - asset investment in the first three quarters was 2.6 trillion yuan. Steel prices may be volatile and slightly bullish in the short term, but the upside space is limited [37][40]. 2.4 Black Metals (Thermal Coal) - The import thermal coal market is weak. The price of thermal coal is expected to decline slightly in the short term and remain strong in the fourth quarter [42]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Live Pigs) - Tangrenshen has reserved artificial meat technology. The price of live pigs is expected to be volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to short on rallies [43]. 2.6 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The Simandou iron ore project is expected to achieve its first shipment by the end of 2025. The price of iron ore followed the market slightly, but it is recommended to remain cautious and wait and see [44][45]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The price of red dates in the Guangzhou Ruyifang market was strong. The futures market is in a state of long - short game, and it is recommended to wait and see [46][47]. 2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The operating rate of corn starch increased, and the inventory decreased seasonally. The fundamentals are better than expected, and there is still room for the price to strengthen [48]. 2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory of southern ports increased seasonally, and the inventory of northern ports decreased slightly. The price of corn is expected to be stable in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [51]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The inventory of nickel in SHFE increased. The price of nickel is expected to rise gradually, and it is recommended to go long on dips [53]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - TCL Zhonghuan reported a net loss in the first three quarters. The price of polysilicon is expected to be flat, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions in a timely manner [56][58]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead was in contango. A new project in Liaoning was successfully ignited, and Camel Group's performance increased in the first three quarters. The price of lead may remain strong in the short term, and it is recommended to be cautious when going long [59][62]. 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc was in backwardation. The domestic TC price decreased, and the production in November may decline. The price of zinc may be volatile and slightly bullish in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [63]. 2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The production of industrial silicon in Sichuan decreased. The price may have a lower limit, and it is recommended to go long on dips [65][66]. 2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Dazhong Mining's subsidiary obtained a lithium mine mining license. The price of lithium carbonate is expected to be range - bound in the short term, and it is recommended to short after the demand peaks [67][68]. 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The EIA commercial crude oil inventory decreased. The price of crude oil is expected to be volatile in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to geopolitical conflicts and OPEC+ meetings [71]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Methanol) - The methanol port inventory increased slightly. The price of methanol is expected to be bearish, and it is recommended to hold short positions [72][73]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC powder increased slightly. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The upside space of the price is limited [74][75]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The spot basis of PTA strengthened. The price may be slightly bullish in the short term, and it is recommended to hold long positions and wait and see [76][78]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - A styrene plant in South China shut down due to a malfunction. The valuation of the pure benzene - styrene industry chain is restricted, and it is necessary to pay attention to the Sino - US summit and oil prices [79][80]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The price of soda ash in the Shahe area was volatile. The fundamentals have limited driving force, and the downside space depends on coal prices and new capacity [81]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Shahe market was flat. The price may be under pressure in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [82][83]. 2.23 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - HMM's shipping capacity exceeded 1 million TEU. The container freight index is affected by macro - disturbances, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [84].
中美元首将于10月30日会晤
Dong Zheng Qi Huo·2025-10-30 00:43