集运指数（欧线）：关注冲高回落风险

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The container shipping index (European Line) showed a strong performance. The 2512 contract closed at 1871.0 points, up 5.08%, and the 2602 contract closed at 1606.0 points, up 3.66%. The market anticipates Maersk to support the FAK price in late November, and the 2512 contract has factored in the expected price increase in December [10]. - For the 2512 contract, adopt a low - buying strategy. The PSS - adjusted long - term contract price strengthens the FAK bottom. If the December capacity increase is limited, the contract valuation may rise to 2050 - 2150 points [13]. - The 2602 contract has a stronger speculative nature, involving factors such as the late Spring Festival in 2026, potential resumption of routes, and the height of December freight rates [14]. - For the 2604 contract, maintain a strategy of short - selling on rallies on a quarterly basis [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: EC2510 closed at 1871.0 points, up 5.08%; EC2512 at 1606.0 points, up 3.66%; EC2602 at 1194.4 points, up 2.60%. The price difference between EC2512 - EC2604 is 183.1, and between EC2602 - EC2604 is - 228.5 [1]. - Freight Index: The SCFIS European route index is 1140.38 points, up 10.5% week - on - week; the SCFIS US West route index is 863.46 points, up 0.1% week - on - week. The SCFI European route is $1246/TEU, up 8.8% bi - weekly; the SCFI US West route is $2153/FEU, up 11.2% bi - weekly [1]. - Spot Freight Rates: In week 46, the lowest FAK quote is around $1900/FEU from the PA Alliance. The FAK average price is about $2150/FEU, equivalent to 1500 - 1550 points on the SCFIS index [11]. - Supply and Demand: In November, the weekly average capacity is 292,000 TEU/week, up 12.1% month - on - month and 5.4% year - on - year, with 12 blank sailings. In December, there are 3 undetermined and 3 blank sailings, and the weekly average capacity is around 308,000 TEU/week. Port congestion in Northwest Europe persists. In the demand side, shipping company loadings in early November varied [12]. 3.2 Macro News - Israel's Defense Minister claimed to have killed dozens of Hamas commanders; the Israeli military carried out a targeted strike in northern Gaza; Trump made remarks about Hamas; Qatar's Prime Minister communicated with the US regarding Israel's violation of the cease - fire agreement; the UN found activity near Iran's nuclear reserves, but Iran is not actively enriching uranium [7][8]. 3.3 Trend Strength The trend strength of the container shipping index (European Line) is 0, indicating a neutral trend [15].