中银晨会聚焦-20251030

Core Insights - The report highlights the growth potential of China Eastern Airlines, one of the three major state-owned airlines in China, which has a leading wide-body fleet and operates from key hubs in Beijing and Shanghai [3][6][7] - The aviation market in China is experiencing a recovery, with a significant increase in passenger transport volume and a trend towards market-driven pricing for airfares [8][9] Company Overview - China Eastern Airlines was established on June 25, 1988, and became the first Chinese airline to be listed in Hong Kong, New York, and Shanghai in 1997. The airline's passenger transport services account for over 90% of its total revenue, projected to be 92% in 2024 [7] - The company's revenue for 2024 is expected to reach CNY 132.12 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.11%, with a gross profit margin of 4.26%. For the first half of 2025, revenue is projected at CNY 66.82 billion, a 4.09% increase year-on-year [7] Industry Performance - The aviation industry in China has seen a 172.8% increase in passenger transport volume over the past 15 years, with domestic passenger transport volume expected to reach 730 million in 2024, a 17.86% increase year-on-year [8][9] - The cargo and mail transport volume is projected to be 8.983 million tons in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.15% [8] Key Factors Influencing Growth - Aircraft supply is experiencing a downward trend in growth due to global supply chain disruptions affecting major aircraft manufacturers' delivery capabilities [9] - Domestic travel demand is expected to rise, supported by increasing per capita flight frequency and GDP growth, alongside a recovering tourism market [9] - The average price of aviation kerosene for the first nine months of 2025 is reported at USD 85.85 per barrel, down 11.93% from the previous year, which is beneficial for reducing operational costs and enhancing profitability [9]