金信期货日刊：焦煤期货价格上涨：供需紧平衡下的必然行情-20251030

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the daily journal of GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO., LTD, written by its research institute on October 30, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Coking Coal Futures - Coking coal futures prices have risen significantly. On October 29, the main - continuous contract closed up 3.50% to 1302 yuan, up more than 12% from the phased low [3] - Supply - side contraction is the core driving force. Domestically, environmental inspections and safety production controls have tightened, reducing production. Imported Mongolian coal has problems such as political unrest, lower production quotas, and halved customs - clearance vehicles [3] - Demand - side support is strong. Although steel mills have slight losses, they maintain a high operating rate, and the molten iron output is stable at about 240,000 tons per day. There is also an expectation of winter storage replenishment in November [3] - Coking coal futures are still at a discount to the spot, and the supply - tight pattern is difficult to change in the short term. It may show a range - bound and slightly stronger trend in the future, but the negative feedback risk caused by high steel inventories should be vigilant [3] Group 3: Stock Index Futures - Stock index futures have stood above 4000 points. The Fed will announce an interest - rate decision at 2:00 am Beijing time on Thursday. Pan Gongsheng advocates developing the bond market's "science and technology board" and deepening the reform of the STAR Market and the Growth Enterprise Market [7] - It is expected to have a high - level shock tomorrow [7] Group 4: Gold - After more than a week of adjustment, gold shows signs of stabilization, and it is advisable to buy on dips [12] Group 5: Iron Ore - After the holiday, the terminal situation has not actually improved, and molten iron production may decline stage - by - stage. Technically, it rebounded significantly today, and the bullish view remains unchanged [15] - There are short - term disruptions in the supply side, but in the long term, with the commissioning of the Simandou project, the supply is expected to be loose [16] Group 6: Glass - The daily melting volume has little change, and inventory has continued to accumulate this week. The future driving force lies in policy - side stimulus and anti - involution policies for supply - side clearance. Technically, the bottom - stabilization signal is clear, and it is advisable to seize the opportunity to go long at low levels [19] Group 7: Eggs - The存栏量 of laying hens continues to increase, and the egg supply is relatively sufficient, suppressing the price rebound. However, based on current prices and costs, future egg - chicken farming is expected to lose 16.90 yuan per chicken. There is a short - term long - buying opportunity [22] Group 8: Pulp - The pulp price in Shandong has remained stable today. The supply - demand fundamentals have not fluctuated significantly, the port de - stocking is lower than expected, and the purchasing - end mentality is cautious. Pulp is expected to continue to operate weakly and should be treated as a low - level shock [27]