工业硅、多晶硅日评：区间整理-20251030

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The supply of industrial silicon still shows a certain increase, while the improvement in demand is limited, maintaining an oversupply pattern, which may suppress the upper space of the market. For polysilicon, recent supply - side news has pushed up the market, but considering the high raw material inventory of downstream, it is difficult to have concentrated restocking in the short term, and the pressure to raise spot prices is relatively large [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Price Information - The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 9,300 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) industrial silicon remained flat at 9,650 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 2.40% to 9,170 yuan/ton [1]. - The average prices of non - oxygenated 553 in Huangpu Port, Tianjin Port, Kunming, and Sichuan were 9,350 yuan/ton, 9,200 yuan/ton, 9,350 yuan/ton, and 8,950 yuan/ton respectively, all remaining unchanged. The average prices of oxygenated 553 in different regions showed little change, with the price in Huangpu Port rising 0.53% to 9,450 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Situation - In October, the southwest production area has gradually returned to the high - cost dry season. Some silicon enterprises will gradually reduce or stop production at the end of this month or next month, while the start - up of northern silicon enterprises has increased. After offsetting, the total start - up has increased [1]. - On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises are still in a production - reduction state, but there may still be an increase in output in October. Organic silicon enterprises maintain the pre - holiday start - up level, and silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed. The overall willingness of downstream enterprises to stock up at low levels is limited [1]. Investment Strategy - The overall supply - demand situation of industrial silicon maintains an oversupply pattern, which may suppress the upper space of the market. Pay attention to the support level of 8,300 - 8,500 yuan/ton. The trading strategy is interval operation [1]. Polysilicon Price Information - The price of N - type dense material fell 0.97% to 51 yuan/kg, the price of N - type re - feeding material fell 1.19% to 52.35 yuan/kg, the price of N - type mixed material remained flat at 50.50 yuan/kg, and the price of N - type granular silicon remained flat at 50.5 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 1.17% to 54,990 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Situation - On the supply side, polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - reduction state, but some polysilicon plants may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting, it is expected that the output will still increase slightly in October. On the demand side, the market transaction was relatively light during the National Day, with few new transactions. Downstream enterprises are more resistant to high - price resources, and the market is waiting for the industry meeting in October [1]. Investment Strategy - Considering the high raw material inventory of downstream, it is difficult to have concentrated restocking in the short term, and the pressure to raise spot prices is relatively large. The previous long positions should pay attention to profit protection. Before the implementation of supply - side reform policies, you can try to go long lightly on dips [1]. Industry News - On October 10, US photovoltaic manufacturer T1 Energy announced a strategic investment in and acquisition of a minority stake in solar cell developer Talon PV. The cooperation will form a synergistic effect in photovoltaic manufacturing in Texas, with a total planned production capacity of 9.8GW [1]. - On October 26, the National Energy Administration released the national power industry statistics from January to September. As of the end of September, the cumulative installed power generation capacity nationwide was 3.72 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 17.5%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 1.13 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 45.7%, and the installed capacity of wind power was 0.58 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 21.3%. The cumulative average utilization hours of power generation equipment nationwide from January to September was 2,368 hours, 251 hours less than the same period last year. The newly added photovoltaic installed capacity in September was 9.66GW [1].