国泰君安期货所长早读-20251030

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On October 29, Eastern Time, the Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, and decided to end the balance - sheet reduction plan in December. However, Powell poured cold water on the year - end rate - cut expectation [7]. - The domestic Fourth Plenary Session and the draft of the "15th Five - Year Plan" have a positive attitude towards economic growth in the next five years, which is conducive to the stability of macro - expectations. The upcoming meeting between Chinese and US presidents at the APEC meeting and the easing of the geopolitical environment have improved risk appetite [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fed Interest Rate Decision - The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points from 4.00% - 4.25% to 3.75% - 4.00% on October 29, 2025, and will end balance - sheet reduction in December. Powell said that a December rate cut is not a certainty, and the government shutdown poses challenges due to missing economic data [7]. 3.2 Sector Recommendations by the Director 3.2.1 Index Futures - With the gradual landing of positive factors, the index futures may oscillate and wait for new drivers. Domestic policies and the upcoming Sino - US summit have boosted market sentiment, but the Fed's hawkish remarks led to a decline in US stocks. Future upward movement of the index will depend on new positive news, and there may be oscillations around the 4000 - point mark [9][10]. 3.2.2 Coking Coal - Supported by the tightening upstream fundamentals and the expected third - round price increase of coke, the coking coal spot price is strong. Macro expectations and anti - involution themes also boost the market. However, the shrinking profit of downstream steel mills and the price of thermal coal may limit its upward space [12][14]. 3.2.3 Container Freight Index (European Line) - There is a risk of a pull - back after a surge. The market is optimistic due to Maersk's surcharge announcement and the expectation of the US softening its stance on China's tariffs. Attention should be paid to the impact of port congestion on supply and the support of December's shipping capacity on prices [13][15]. 3.2.4 Live Pigs - In the short - term, the spot price may oscillate and adjust. But from the perspective of the production cycle, the pressure will increase in the future as the profit recovers, and the far - end hedging willingness will increase [16]. 3.3 Commodity Research Morning Report 3.3.1 Precious Metals - Gold continues to decline, and silver rebounds oscillatingly. The trend intensity of both is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view [19][22][24]. 3.3.2 Base Metals - Copper: The hawkish outlook on rate cuts restricts price increases. The trend intensity is 0 [26]. - Zinc: It rebounds slightly, with a trend intensity of 0 [29]. - Lead: The continuous reduction of inventory supports the price, and the trend intensity is 0 [32]. - Tin: Attention should be paid to macro - impacts, and the trend intensity is 0 [35]. - Aluminum: It oscillates within a range. Alumina rebounds slightly, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend intensity of all three is 0 [39][41]. - Nickel: The accumulation of smelting inventory and concerns about nickel ore lead to a narrow - range oscillation of nickel prices. Stainless steel has limited downward space but lacks upward drivers. The trend intensity of both is 0 [42]. 3.3.3 Energy and Chemicals - Lithium Carbonate: The basis is stable, and it runs strongly. The trend intensity is 1 [45][47]. - Industrial Silicon: The sentiment is boosted, and the price on the disk rises. The trend intensity is 1 [49][51]. - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to the policy fermentation this week. The trend intensity is 0 [49][51]. - Iron Ore: It oscillates strongly, with a trend intensity of 0 [52]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Driven by macro - sentiment, the steel prices oscillate strongly. The trend intensity of both is 1 [54][56]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: Driven by anti - involution sentiment, they oscillate strongly. The trend intensity of both is 0 [58][61]. - Coke and Coking Coal: They oscillate strongly, and the trend intensity of both is 0 [62][64]. - Logs: They oscillate repeatedly [65].