国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：农产品-20251030

Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products by Guotai Junan Futures on October 30, 2025, covering various agricultural products including palm oil, soybean oil, etc. [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - Palm oil: Short - term support, beware of a second decline [2] - Soybean oil: US soybeans rebound, pay attention to the results of China - US negotiations [2] - Soybean meal: Range - bound, waiting for the meeting between Chinese and US leaders [2] - Soybean: Range - bound [2] - Corn: Weakly range - bound [2] - Sugar: Strongly range - bound [2] - Cotton: The rising cost of new cotton supports cotton futures prices [2] - Eggs: Maintain adjustment [2] - Hogs: Spot sentiment declines, waiting for confirmation [2] - Peanuts: Focus on the spot market [2] 3. Summaries by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Fundamental Data: Palm oil futures closed at 8,842 yuan/ton (down 1.29% during the day) and 8,826 yuan/ton (down 0.18% at night). Soybean oil futures closed at 8,132 yuan/ton (down 0.61% during the day) and 8,146 yuan/ton (up 0.17% at night). The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,750 yuan/ton (down 150 yuan), and that of soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,450 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan) [5]. - Macro and Industry News: Pakistan may increase the import quota of Indonesian palm oil. As of October 23, the estimated net increase in US soybean export sales for the 2025/26 season is 60 - 160 million tons. Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting area is expected to reach 48.8 million hectares, with an output of 177 million tons [6][8]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - Fundamental Data: DCE soybean 2601 closed at 4,113 yuan/ton (+0.51%) during the day and 4,107 yuan/ton (-0.22%) at night. DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 2,969 yuan/ton (+0.03%) during the day and 2,975 yuan/ton (+0.03%) at night [17]. - Macro and Industry News: On October 29, Chinese state - owned enterprises bought three ships of US soybeans. Traders are watching for more Chinese purchases ahead of the China - US leaders' meeting [17][19]. Corn - Fundamental Data: The price of C2601 was 2,116 yuan/ton (-0.09%) during the day and remained unchanged at night. The trading volume of C2601 was 374,280 lots (down 100,431 lots), and the open interest was 925,389 lots (up 13,061 lots) [21]. - Macro and Industry News: The northern corn bulk shipping port price decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong Shekou price increased slightly [22]. Sugar - Fundamental Data: The raw sugar price was 14.42 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5,730 yuan/ton, and the futures main contract price was 5,494 yuan/ton [24]. - Macro and Industry News: Brazil's sugar production in the second half of September increased by 11% year - on - year, but exports decreased. China's sugar imports in September were 550,000 tons (+150,000 tons) [24]. Cotton - Fundamental Data: CF2601 closed at 13,620 yuan/ton (+0.41%) during the day and 13,650 yuan/ton (+0.22%) at night. The trading volume of CF2601 was 255,130 lots (up 77,784 lots), and the open interest was 910,968 lots (up 2,065 lots) [28]. - Macro and Industry News: The cotton spot trading was average, and the ICE cotton futures rose by more than 1% due to optimistic trade prospects [29]. Eggs - Fundamental Data: Egg 2511 closed at 2,912 yuan/500 kg (up 1.22%), and Egg 2601 closed at 3,368 yuan/500 kg (up 1.91%) [32]. - Macro and Industry News: Not provided Hogs - Fundamental Data: The Henan spot price was 12,580 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan), and the futures price of Hog 2601 was 12,160 yuan/ton (down 170 yuan) [34]. - Macro and Industry News: Yuexiu and Yangxiang added delivery warehouses, and the national feed output in September was 30.36 million tons, up 3.4% month - on - month and 5% year - on - year [36] Peanuts - Fundamental Data: PK601 closed at 7,822 yuan/ton (up 0.03%). The trading volume of PK601 was 68,448 lots (up 15,637 lots), and the open interest was 175,747 lots (down 3,551 lots) [37]. - Macro and Industry News: In the spot market, the supply in most regions is limited, and prices are stable or slightly stronger [38]