国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20251030

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report doesn't explicitly provide overall industry investment ratings but gives trend intensities for each commodity: - Positive Trends: PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, asphalt [2][8][9][10][11][18][25] - Neutral Trends: Synthetic rubber, LLDPE, PP, paper pulp, glass, methanol, urea, benzene, styrene, soda ash, LPG, propylene, PVC, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil [2][14][16][31][33][35][37][44][45][48][49][51][54][55][57][58][61][63][64][67][68][75][76][78] - Negative Trends: Caustic soda [40][41] 2. Core Views of the Report - Different commodities in the futures market show various trends due to factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and macro - events. For example, PTA may strengthen due to anti - involution policies and improved downstream demand; MEG may rise because of cost support; while caustic soda is suppressed by alumina production cut expectations [8][9][40] 3. Summaries According to Commodities PX, PTA, MEG - PX: Trades in a unilateral oscillating market. PXN is recommended to be shorted at high levels. Supply and demand are both increasing, with some plants restarting and others delaying maintenance [8] - PTA: Expected to be unilaterally strong. Anti - involution policies may lead to supply contraction. Downstream demand is improving, and processing fees are likely to expand in the short term [8] - MEG: Supported by rising coal prices, it is expected to be strong in the short term. Domestic supply may shrink marginally, but port inventory is expected to be high [9] Rubber - Trades in a slightly upward - oscillating manner. Futures prices have increased, and inventory in Qingdao has decreased. Tire production capacity utilization has improved [10][11][13] Synthetic Rubber - Oscillates as cost decreases but the macro - environment is strong. Inventory has decreased, and the price may show a wide - range oscillating pattern in the short term and a downward - centered trend in the medium term [14][15][16] Asphalt - Follows the oscillation of crude oil. Capacity utilization and shipment volume have increased this week [18][25][30] LLDPE - Mainly oscillates. Although the raw material oil price has fallen, downstream demand provides support. Supply pressure may increase later [31][32] PP - Stops falling in the short term and oscillates in the medium term. Downward pressure comes from multiple factors, but short - term rebounds are reasonable due to oil price rebounds and supply cuts [35][36] Caustic Soda - Its valuation is suppressed. Alumina production cut expectations limit its upside, and cost has decreased recently [39][40] Paper Pulp - Oscillates. Supply pressure is high, demand is weak, and there is a differentiation between financial attributes and fundamentals [44][46][47] Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. The spot market of soda ash shows weak and stable oscillations [48][49] Methanol - Oscillates in the short term and its price center may move down in the medium term. It is affected by fundamental supply pressure and macro - events [51][53][54] Urea - Oscillates with a game between fundamental pressure and a strong macro - environment. Inventory has decreased this week, but the short - term fundamental situation is weakening [55][56][57] Benzene, Styrene - Oscillates in the short term. Crude oil price rebounds drive chemical valuation repair, and there is a shift from inventory accumulation to destocking expectations [58][59] Soda Ash - The spot market shows little change. Supply remains high, and demand is tepid [61][63] LPG, Propylene - LPG: Has limited upward drivers, and cost changes should be monitored [67] - Propylene: Oscillates weakly in the short term due to a relatively loose supply - demand situation [68] PVC - Rebounds in the short term but may face pressure later. High - production and high - inventory structures are difficult to change [75] Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel Oil: Weakens compared to the previous period, and price fluctuations continue to widen [78] - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Remains stronger than high - sulfur fuel oil, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils in the overseas spot market rebounds again [78] Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Attention should be paid to the risk of a fall after a peak. Futures prices have increased, and freight rates have also risen [80]