尿素早评：情绪好转，反转存疑-20251030

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The current sentiment of urea has improved, but the reversal may not have arrived yet based on supply and demand. The current market is mainly driven by short - position holders taking profit. It is recommended to hold the previously sold out - of - the - money put options. The current urea valuation is at a relatively low level, reflecting the situation of strong supply and weak demand. If prices continue to fall, upstream production willingness may decline, accelerating enterprise clearance. In the short term, the upward driving force for urea is insufficient, with large supply and inventory pressure. The downstream is cautious about restocking at low prices. Future potential drivers include the renovation of old chemical industry equipment on the supply side and the issuance of new export quotas [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory Urea Futures Price - On October 29, compared with October 28, UR01 increased by 0.55% (9 yuan/ton), UR05 increased by 0.53% (9 yuan/ton), and UR09 increased by 0.63% (11 yuan/ton) [1] Domestic Spot Price - On October 29, compared with October 28, prices in Shandong, Henan, and Jiangsu decreased by 0.62%, 0.63%, and 0.63% respectively (10 yuan/ton each), prices in Shanxi decreased by 0.68% (10 yuan/ton), while prices in Hebei and Northeast remained unchanged [1] Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased by 19 yuan/ton, and the spread of 01 - 05 remained unchanged [1] Upstream Cost - On October 29, compared with October 28, the price of anthracite coal in Shanxi increased by 5.68% (50 yuan/ton), while prices in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged [1] Downstream Price - On October 29, compared with October 28, prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan, and prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged [1] Important Information - The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1638 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1652 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1633 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1644 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1643 yuan/ton. The position of 2601 was 270,349 lots [1] Trading Strategy - Hold the sold out - of - the - money put options [1]