美联储10月议息会议点评：12月还会降息吗？

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75-4.0% as expected, and announced the end of balance sheet reduction on December 1[2] - Powell indicated that a rate cut in December is not guaranteed, reflecting internal divisions within the Fed[2] - The meeting saw two dissenting votes, highlighting increasing disagreements among Fed officials regarding future rate cuts[2] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, the implied probability of a December rate cut dropped from over 90% to below 70%[3] - The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries rose by 9.8 basis points to 4.07%, while the U.S. dollar index increased by 0.4% to 99.16[3] - The S&P 500 index closed flat, and gold prices fell by 0.6% to $3929.7 per ounce after the meeting[3] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The Fed's stance is shifting from tightening to a neutral position, with potential for 3-4 more rate cuts before reaching a terminal rate[4] - Economic indicators suggest that the U.S. economy may be stabilizing, with employment potentially nearing a recovery point[4] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to persist, influencing future monetary policy decisions[4] Group 4: Risks and Considerations - There is significant uncertainty regarding the actual space and pace of future rate cuts due to data delays and leadership changes within the Fed[4] - If the market's expectation of a December rate cut is not met, short-term adjustments in U.S. stocks and gold may occur[4] - Long-term expectations for rate cuts through 2026 remain rational, suggesting limited future impact once short-term adjustments are made[4]