美联储偏鹰，??震荡回落

Report Industry Investment Rating - The precious metals market is rated as "oscillating strongly" in the short - term and is expected to benefit from the downward trend of real interest rates in the medium - term. London gold is expected to trade between $3900 - $4100 per ounce, and London silver between $48 - $52 per ounce [9] Core Viewpoints - The Fed's "rate cut + end of quantitative tightening" signals a marginal improvement in liquidity, but Powell's hawkish remarks at the press conference dampened market expectations of continuous easing. The combination of hawkish policy signals and tightened money markets leads to short - term oscillations in the precious metals market, while the medium - term outlook remains positive due to the downward trend of real interest rates [3][5][9] Summary by Related Catalogs Key Information - The Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25bp to 3.75% - 4.00% and will stop the balance - sheet reduction operation from December. The New York Fed will reinvest all maturing Treasury and MBS principal, keeping the balance - sheet size at about $6.6 trillion [4] - Powell signaled hawkishness, stating that a December rate cut is "far from certain". After the meeting, the market's probability of another rate cut in December dropped from nearly 100% to 64% [4] - Chinese and US leaders held a meeting in Busan, South Korea on October 30, the first face - to - face meeting since Trump returned to the White House, exchanging views on Sino - US relations and issues of common concern [4] - The Israel - Palestine conflict escalated, with Israeli military air - strikes on the Gaza Strip killing at least 100 civilians, and Hamas denying violating the cease - fire agreement [4] Price Logic - The Fed's "rate cut + end of quantitative tightening" supports gold in the short - term as nominal interest rates decline, but Powell's hawkish stance suppresses expectations of continuous easing. The passive contraction of the Fed's balance - sheet has tightened short - term liquidity, which restricts the price elasticity of gold in the short - term. However, if the money - market pressure persists, gold's hedging and liquidity - hedging functions will strengthen in the medium - term [5] - Silver oscillated and declined with gold, but its price adjustment was limited due to high financing rates in the London market and spot premiums. Industrial demand is moderately recovering, with a strong long - term outlook [5] Outlook - In November, attention should be paid to non - farm substitute data and frequent speeches by Fed officials. If employment indicators show signs of cooling and liquidity tightness persists, the probability of a December rate cut may be revised upwards. Overall, precious metals are expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term and benefit from the downward trend of real interest rates in the medium - term [6][9]