招商期货商品期货早班车-20251030

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including basic metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It presents market performance, fundamental factors, and trading strategies for each commodity, offering insights for investors to make informed decisions in the futures market. Summary by Related Catalogs Basic Metals - Aluminum: Yesterday, the closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 0.73% to 21,295 yuan/ton. The LME price was 2,904 dollars/ton. The electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product operating rate remained stable. With a warm domestic macro - environment, eased Sino - US trade friction, and potential overseas production cuts due to power shortages, the price is expected to be oscillating strongly. It is recommended to buy on dips [2]. - Alumina: The closing price of the alumina main contract rose by 2.20% yesterday. Some alumina plants resumed production, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production. With the spot price showing signs of stopping decline and the influence of "anti - involution" news, the main short - sellers significantly reduced their positions. It is suggested to buy call options on dips and follow the changes in the positions of the main seats [2]. - Industrial Silicon: On Wednesday, the main 01 contract closed at 9,170 yuan/ton, up 2.40%. Supply may decrease in the southwest in late October. Social and warehouse inventories decreased slightly. The high - inventory pressure remains. The price is expected to oscillate between 8,600 - 9,400 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - Lithium Carbonate: LC2601 closed at 82,900 yuan/ton, up 1.5%. Supply reached a new high last week, and demand was strong in October. It is expected to maintain a shortage in the short - term. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly, and it is recommended to closely monitor the reduction of warehouse receipts and be cautious when chasing up [2]. Black Industry - Rebar: The main 2601 contract of rebar closed at 3,138 yuan/ton. The supply - demand contradiction of steel is limited, with obvious structural differentiation. It is recommended to hold long positions, with a reference range of 3,090 - 3,160 yuan/ton for RB01 [4]. - Iron Ore: The main 2601 contract of iron ore closed at 807.5 yuan/ton. The supply - demand is neutral to strong, and it is expected that the inventory accumulation will be slightly slower than the historical average. It is recommended to hold long positions, with a reference range of 790 - 820 yuan/ton for I01 [4]. - Coking Coal: The main 2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1,303.5 yuan/ton. Steel mill profits are deteriorating, and the futures valuation is high. It is recommended to mainly wait and see, with a reference range of 1,270 - 1,320 yuan/ton for JM01 [4]. Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal: CBOT soybeans are short - term strong, trading on optimistic trade expectations. Globally, high - inventory expectations remain. The domestic market is following the cost side and oscillating. Attention should be paid to tariff policy progress [5]. - Corn: Corn futures are weak, and the spot price is mixed. With expected new - crop production increase and cost reduction, the spot price is expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to weather and policy changes [5]. - Oils and Fats: The short - term Malaysian palm oil market is falling. The near - term palm oil in Malaysia is accumulating inventory, and the long - term may see seasonal production cuts. Oils and fats are weak with variety differentiation, and it is recommended to focus on the P structure for reverse spreads [5]. - Sugar: Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract closed at 5,496 yuan/ton, up 0.13%. Brazil's next - season production increase is expected. If the northern hemisphere's production increase is realized, the domestic sugar price will face downward pressure. It is recommended to short in the futures market and sell call options [5]. - Cotton: Overnight, US cotton futures rose. International and domestic market performances are mixed. It is recommended to buy on dips, with a strategy in the 13,400 - 13,700 yuan/ton range [5][6]. - Eggs: Egg futures are rising, and the spot price is stable. With sufficient supply and low vegetable prices, egg prices are expected to be low. The futures price is expected to oscillate in a range [6]. - Hogs: Hog futures are oscillating narrowly, and the spot price is partially rising. With increasing supply, rising slaughter volume, and secondary fattening, hog prices are expected to repair through oscillation [6]. Energy Chemicals - LLDPE: The LLDPE main contract oscillated slightly yesterday. The domestic supply pressure is rising but at a slower pace, and the demand is improving. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short on rallies or do reverse spreads [7]. - PVC: V01 closed at 4,775, up 1%. The fundamentals are weak, with increased supply, high inventory, and uncertain demand. It is recommended to short [7]. - PTA: PX supply is high, and PTA production is increasing. Polyester demand is improving, and PTA is slightly de - stocking. It is recommended to go long on PX and short the PTA processing fee on rallies [7][8]. - Rubber: RU2601 closed at 15,625 yuan/ton, up 1.56%. The inventory in Qingdao decreased. With a warm macro - environment, the market confidence is boosted. Attention should be paid to the Sino - US summit [8]. - Glass: FG01 closed at 1,128, up 1.6%. The supply is high, the inventory is accumulating, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to do reverse spreads [8]. - PP: The PP main contract oscillated slightly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is in the peak season but with some demand overdraft. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short on rallies or do reverse spreads [8]. - MEG: The MEG East China spot price is 4,152 yuan/ton. The supply pressure is large, and the inventory is at a low level. It is recommended to short on rallies [8]. - Styrene: The EB main contract oscillated slightly. The supply and demand contradictions are large. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short on rallies or do reverse spreads [9]. - Soda Ash: SA01 closed at 1,260, up 1.1%. The supply and demand are balanced. It is recommended to wait and see [9].