合成橡胶：成本下移，但宏观偏强，震荡运行

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - Short - term, synthetic rubber (especially cis - butadiene rubber) is expected to form a wide - range volatile pattern of capital games during the day, and the medium - term price center will gradually decline. The raw material end has weakened significantly, leading to the gradual repair of production profits. The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber has decreased, while the inventory of butadiene in East China ports has increased. The macro events in the short - term have a greater impact on the equity market [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - Futures Market: For the 12 - contract of cis - butadiene rubber, the daily closing price was 10,795 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 195,650 lots, an increase of 83,214 lots; the open interest was 52,216 lots, an increase of 3,565 lots; the trading volume was 1041.436 million yuan, an increase of 430.208 million yuan [1]. - Spread Data: The basis of Shandong cis - butadiene rubber minus the futures main contract was 105 yuan, down 90 yuan; the monthly spread of BR11 - BR12 (private) was 45 yuan, down 15 yuan [1]. - Spot Market: The prices of North China, East China, and South China cis - butadiene rubber (private) decreased by 150 yuan; the market price of Shandong cis - butadiene rubber (delivery product) decreased by 100 yuan. The prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (models 1502 and 1712) decreased by 150 yuan and 200 yuan respectively. The mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong decreased by 300 yuan [1]. - Fundamentals: The cis - butadiene rubber operating rate was 65.8996%, an increase of 1.74%. The theoretical full cost of cis - butadiene rubber was 10,637 yuan/ton, a decrease of 309 yuan; the profit was 363 yuan/ton, an increase of 309 yuan [1]. [Industry News] - Cis - butadiene Rubber Inventory: As of October 29, 2025, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber inventory was 30,900 tons, a decrease of 2,300 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 6.90%. Some production enterprises stopped or planned to stop production, and the production profit was gradually repaired, driving some private enterprises to sell at low prices. The inventory of sample production enterprises and sample trading enterprises decreased significantly [2]. - Butadiene Inventory: As of October 29, the latest inventory of butadiene in East China ports was about 32,000 tons, an increase of 7,400 tons compared with the previous period. There were imported ships arriving at the port during the cycle, and the inventory of some trading volumes increased slightly, resulting in a significant increase in the sample port inventory. Merchants expect the import volume in November to be abundant [2][3].