PVC：短期反弹

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - PVC will experience a short - term rebound, but will face pressure again when the main contract encounters delivery issues [1] - The high - production and high - inventory structure of the PVC market is difficult to change, and export growth may slow down due to policy disturbances [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs PVC Fundamental Data - The 01 - contract futures price is 4775, the East China spot price is 4620, the basis is - 155, and the 1 - 5 month spread is - 286 [1] Spot Market Situation - The domestic PVC spot market is running in a stalemate. The morning inquiry atmosphere is light, and the spot quotation is mainly stable. The afternoon commodity market drive causes a small increase in the PVC market, but the spot transaction center has limited fluctuations. In the East China region, the cash - on - delivery warehouse pickup price of calcium carbide - based type 5 PVC is 4580 - 4700 yuan/ton, and the ethylene - based PVC price is stuck at 4700 - 4900 yuan/ton [1] Market Condition Analysis - Coal is short - term strong, and the macro anti - involution sentiment leads to a short - term rebound of PVC. However, from the PVC fundamentals, the "chlorine compensation with alkali" in the profit end results in insufficient driving force for PVC production cuts. After the maintenance devices resume production, the supply side will maintain high - level operation in winter [1] - The demand for PVC downstream products related to real estate is still weak year - on - year, enterprises have low inventory - stocking willingness, inventory transfer to downstream is not smooth, and social inventory is higher year - on - year. In addition, PVC warehouse receipts are still at a high level, and there will be great pressure on long - position holders to take delivery in the future [1] Trend Intensity - The PVC trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [2]