2025年10月美联储议息会议点评：12月FOMC会议还降不降息？

Group 1: Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%-4.00% during the October meeting[6] - The Fed announced the cessation of quantitative tightening (QT) starting December 1, 2025[2] - The voting outcome was 10-2, indicating significant internal division regarding future rate cuts[6] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The Fed's economic assessment shifted from "moderated in the first half of the year" to "expanding at a moderate pace"[6] - Employment growth is slowing, but there are no signs of accelerated job market weakness[2] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to become more evident in the first quarter of next year[2] Group 3: Future Rate Cut Expectations - There is a high probability of pausing rate cuts in December due to ongoing government shutdown issues and delayed economic data[2] - The likelihood of resuming rate cuts may increase after the May 2026 Fed chair transition, especially if a dovish candidate is appointed[2] - The Fed's internal divisions and cautious approach to data-driven decisions add uncertainty to future monetary policy[2]