宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20251030

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The overall trend of the agricultural products futures in the commodity market is weak, with most varieties showing a weak - oscillatory pattern. The market situation of each variety is affected by multiple factors, and the future market trend is uncertain, lacking a clear direction [5][6][7][8]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1. Bean Meal (M) - Price Trend: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all oscillatory and weak. The future trend will depend on Sino - US relations, import arrival rhythm, oil mill start - up rhythm, and inventory pressure [5][6]. - Core Logic: Driven by the expectation of China resuming soybean purchases from the US, the far - month US soybean contract rose to the $11 mark and then fell back. Before the market direction is determined by details of the Sino - US trade agreement, South American weather, and China's actual purchase rhythm, the market is in a game state. In the short term, the cost - driven logic of the bean meal market replaces the supply logic, and the bean meal futures price faces a risk of decline after approaching the upper limit of the oscillatory range [5]. 3.2. Soybean Oil (Y) - Price Trend: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all oscillatory and weak. The future trend is affected by Sino - US relations, US biofuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6][7]. - Core Logic: The weakness in the oil market continues, with soybean oil being relatively resistant to decline. The spot price is also falling. The arrival volume of raw soybeans remains high, the oil mill start - up rate continues to increase, and the soybean oil inventory has reached 1.2503 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.26%, hitting a new high in the same period in the past five years. On the demand side, catering consumption is weak and downstream procurement is cautious, resulting in a sluggish market. In the process of supply - demand re - balance, the pattern of strong meal and weak oil continues, and the soybean oil futures price will continue to oscillate weakly [7]. 3.3. Palm Oil (P) - Price Trend: Short - term view is weak, medium - term view is oscillatory, and intraday view is oscillatory and weak. The future trend is influenced by biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [6][8]. - Core Logic: The main pressure on the palm oil market comes from the expected 10% year - on - year increase in Indonesia's palm oil production in 2025 to about 56 - 57 million tons, and the weak exports of Malaysian palm oil also drag down the international palm oil futures price. The domestic market is focused on the possible meetings between Chinese, US, and Canadian leaders during the APEC Summit. The palm oil futures price has fallen below the lower limit of the previous oscillatory range and will continue to be weak [8].