贵金属日报：贵金属-20251030

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After Powell's hawkish statement, the prices of gold and silver dropped in the short term. The release of the Fed's loose monetary policy expectations still requires a certain period. However, the Fed Chairman has made a statement on balance sheet expansion. This FOMC meeting sent a signal that the December interest rate cut is still uncertain while strengthening the subsequent monetary policy idea of "rate cut + balance sheet expansion." In the loose monetary policy cycle, it is recommended to buy on dips for silver, which will benefit more. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 880 - 966 yuan/gram, and that for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 10937 - 11690 yuan/kilogram [2]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold rose 0.69% to 910.92 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver rose 0.64% to 11265.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX Gold was reported at 3949.30 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver was reported at 47.54 US dollars/ounce. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond was reported at 4.08%, and the US dollar index was reported at 99.13 [1]. - The Fed held an FOMC meeting early today. The tone of this meeting was a "hawkish rate cut." Powell's monetary policy statement was hawkish, and he also made a statement on the final balance sheet expansion [1]. Key Focus Directions of the FOMC Meeting - The statement on the subsequent interest rate path was more hawkish than market expectations. Powell stated that "a rate cut in December is not a certainty," and the lack of economic data could be a reason to pause interest rate adjustments [1]. - The discussion on the balance sheet was more dovish than market expectations in the medium term. Although the FOMC decided to end the balance sheet reduction on December 1st, which was later than market expectations, Powell clearly stated that the Fed would expand the balance sheet again. This was his first key statement on balance sheet expansion in this rate - cut cycle [1]. - The voting was more hawkish than market expectations. Fed Governor Milan voted against as expected and supported a 50 - basis - point rate cut. Governors Bowman and Waller did not support aggressive rate cuts. Hawkish voting member Schmidt voted against and supported keeping the interest rate unchanged at this FOMC meeting [2]. Gold and Silver Data Comparison (2025 - 10 - 29 vs. 2025 - 10 - 28) - Gold: COMEX gold's closing price (active contract) decreased by 0.67% to 3941.70 US dollars/ounce, trading volume decreased by 14.96% to 28.11 million lots, and open interest increased by 2.43% to 52.88 million lots. LBMA gold's closing price increased by 1.47% to 4006.70 US dollars/ounce. Shanghai Gold's closing price (active contract) increased by 1.05% to 910.88 yuan/gram, trading volume decreased by 25.73% to 47.79 million lots, and open interest decreased by 1.93% to 34.27 million lots. The closing price of AuT + D increased by 1.75% to 912.42 yuan/gram, trading volume decreased by 23.05% to 52.13 tons, and open interest decreased by 1.19% to 255.69 tons [5]. - Silver: COMEX silver's closing price (active contract) increased by 0.29% to 47.28 US dollars/ounce, and open interest increased by 1.75% to 16.58 million lots. LBMA silver's closing price increased by 3.74% to 48.18 US dollars/ounce. Shanghai Silver's closing price (active contract) increased by 2.62% to 11338.00 yuan/kilogram, trading volume decreased by 28.93% to 125.13 million lots, and open interest decreased by 1.93% to 68.89 million lots. The closing price of AgT + D increased by 3.23% to 11351.00 yuan/kilogram, trading volume decreased by 20.90% to 605.45 tons, and open interest decreased by 2.92% to 3609.146 tons [5].