甲醇：短期震荡博弈

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The methanol market is expected to show a short - term oscillating pattern, with the medium - term price center still moving down. The upper pressure mainly comes from the supply side of the fundamentals, while the lower side is supported by port logistics contradictions [3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - In the futures market, on October 30, 2025, the closing price of the methanol main contract (01 contract) was 2,257 yuan/ton, up from 2,241 yuan/ton the previous day; the settlement price was 2,245 yuan/ton, down from 2,252 yuan/ton the previous day; the trading volume was 585,629 lots, down from 685,035 lots the previous day; the open interest was 1,197,415 lots, down from 1,221,292 lots the previous day; the number of warehouse receipts was 12,122 tons, down from 13,872 tons the previous day; the trading volume was 1,314,936 ten - thousand yuan, down from 1,542,841 ten - thousand yuan the previous day. The basis was - 47, down from - 34 the previous day, and the MA01 - MA05 spread was - 64, down from - 62 the previous day [1] - In the spot market, on October 30, 2025, the Inner Mongolia price was 1,990 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the northern Shaanxi price was 1,980 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the Shandong price was 2,170 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] Spot News - The methanol spot price index was 2102.10, down 0.18. The Taicang spot price was 2210, up 3, and the Inner Mongolia northern line price was 2010, unchanged. Among the 20 large and medium - sized cities monitored by Longzhong, 10 cities saw varying degrees of price increases, with increases ranging from 3 to 10 yuan/ton. The domestic methanol market showed regional narrow - range adjustments. The futures market rebounded slightly after hitting a new low in the night session, and the port market followed slightly, but the overall atmosphere was still average. The atmosphere in the main inland areas improved slightly. After the olefin procurement in the production areas was released, and most upstream enterprises' inventories were still controllable, most trade resales showed small increases, and some low - end transactions were acceptable; some areas in North China weakened slightly [3] - As of October 29, 2025, the total methanol port inventory in China was 150.65 million tons, a decrease of 0.57 million tons from the previous period. Among them, the inventory in East China decreased by 2.97 million tons, and the inventory in South China increased by 2.40 million tons [3] Market Outlook - The methanol fundamentals are under great pressure, but the valuation is moderately low. With many important macro - events recently, the short - term price is expected to oscillate, and the medium - term price center will still move down. The upper pressure mainly comes from the supply side of the fundamentals, and the lower side is supported by port logistics contradictions. The 01 contract's downside space is gradually narrowing as the premium decreases. Macro - events such as the Fourth Plenary Session, the "15th Five - Year Plan", and Sino - US trade consultations need to be closely monitored, as well as the Sino - US ship issue [3][4]