研究所晨会观点精萃-20251030

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected, but Powell said a December rate cut is not guaranteed, strengthening the US dollar index and cooling global risk appetite. Domestically, economic growth has accelerated, and the upcoming meeting between Chinese and US leaders has boosted market optimism. Policy stimulus expectations have increased, enhancing short - term macro - upward drivers. Focus on China - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policies [3]. - Different asset classes have different trends: stocks are short - term oscillating and strengthening; bonds are short - term oscillating; commodities have different trends for different sectors [3]. Summary by Directory Macro - finance - Stocks: Driven by sectors such as energy metals, industrial metals, and photovoltaic equipment, the domestic stock market rose significantly. With accelerated economic growth, the upcoming Sino - US leaders' meeting, and enhanced policy stimulus expectations, short - term macro - upward drivers have increased. Short - term cautious buying is recommended [4]. - Precious Metals: After the Fed's rate cut, the US dollar strengthened, and precious metals weakened. In the short term, they are oscillating and correcting, but the medium - to - long - term upward trend remains. Short - term long - position reduction and mid - to - long - term buying on dips are advised [4]. Black Metals - Steel: The domestic steel spot and futures markets continued to rebound. Demand improved marginally, inventories decreased, and supply is expected to decline due to compressed profits and environmental restrictions. The market is mainly driven by macro factors, and prices are likely to be oscillating and strengthening [5]. - Iron Ore: Iron ore prices continued to be strong due to improved macro expectations and a significant drop in arrivals. Port inventories decreased. Steel mill profits are compressed, and iron - water production may decline further. Supply has some changes, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [7]. - Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron: Spot prices were flat, and futures prices rebounded slightly. Demand decreased due to a slight decline in steel production. Supply of silicon manganese increased slightly. Prices are expected to oscillate in the range [8]. Chemicals - Soda Ash: The main contract oscillated. Supply increased in the short term, and there are capacity expansion plans in the fourth quarter. Demand increased slightly. With supply pressure, a bearish view is taken [9]. - Glass: The main contract oscillated. Supply was stable, demand in the peak season was weak, and inventory was relatively high. Supported by anti - involution policies, it is expected to be oscillating and strengthening in the short term [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - Copper: Driven by supply concerns, copper prices reached a record high. High US inventories may limit future imports. A mine shutdown in Indonesia tightened the global supply, but beware of the restart of a Panama mine. Domestic de - stocking was less than expected, and prices are expected to remain strong [10]. - Aluminum: The price of Shanghai aluminum rose significantly, with technical support at 21100. Fundamentals are not good, but a decline in London inventories may support prices in the short term [11]. - Tin: After the end of a large - scale smelter's maintenance in Yunnan, the smelting start - up rate increased significantly. However, the ore supply is tight, and prices are expected to oscillate at a high level [11]. - Lithium Carbonate: The main contract rose. Supply and demand both increased, and the price is expected to be oscillating and strengthening in the short term, but beware of hedging pressure [12]. - Industrial Silicon: The main contract rose. Demand was stable, and with cost support, it is expected to be oscillating and strengthening [12]. - Polysilicon: The main contract rose. Supply is high, demand is low, and it is waiting for policy support and attention to spot price support [13]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: The market evaluated the impact of a large drop in US inventories and sanctions on Russian oil producers. The meeting between Chinese and US leaders raised expectations for trade agreements, and oil prices rebounded slightly [15]. - Asphalt: Prices rebounded with oil prices and then stabilized. With the approaching off - season, inventory reduction will slow down. Future price trends depend on the rebound space of oil prices [15]. - PX: As oil prices rose, PX followed suit. It is in a tight supply situation but has high short - selling risks [16]. - PTA: The market is waiting for the results of a symposium. Short - term capital is leaving, and the inventory accumulation rate has slowed down. It will remain oscillating in the short term [16]. - Ethylene Glycol: Port inventories decreased slightly, and prices rose slightly with oil prices. It will continue to oscillate in the near term [16]. - Short - fiber: Prices rebounded slightly but are expected to remain weakly oscillating. Future upward space depends on terminal orders [17]. - Methanol: Some inland markets are weak, and port prices are oscillating at a low level. Supply pressure will increase, and demand is weak. Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [17]. - PP: Market quotations oscillated. Supply is sufficient, but demand has improved marginally. Prices may be repaired in the short term [19]. - LLDPE: Prices fluctuated slightly. Supply is expected to increase, and demand may improve slightly. Prices may be repaired in the short term, but the supply - surplus situation remains [19]. - Urea: The domestic market showed a slight downward trend. Supply is becoming more abundant, and demand is stable. Prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [20]. Agricultural Products - US Soybeans: CBOT soybean prices fell slightly. US soybean exports have decreased significantly this year. The market is optimistic about trade negotiations, but there are still system risks [21]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: Domestic soybean supply is abundant, and soybean meal supply is sufficient. If Sino - US agricultural trade relations improve, soybean meal inventory accumulation may limit upward price space [21]. - Palm Oil: In Malaysia, inventory accumulation pressure has increased since October, and the implementation of Indonesia's B50 plan is uncertain. After continuous price drops, it has entered a technically oversold stage [22]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Oil: Soybean oil supply is abundant, and it is in the consumption peak season. Rapeseed oil inventory is decreasing, but there are factors suppressing prices [23]. - Corn: North - port corn prices continued to decline. The market price is close to the cost line, and farmers' reluctance to sell may slow down the decline [23]. - Hogs: The average price of live hogs decreased slightly. Short - term prices have stabilized, but there is still a large supply - demand mismatch pressure in November [23].