铜冠金源期货商品日报-20251030

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the Fed cut interest rates by 25BP, but there are internal differences, and the possibility of a December rate cut is uncertain. The dollar index rose, the US stock market fluctuated, and copper prices reached a record high [2]. - Domestically, the A - share market continued to break through, and the bond market showed a short - strong and long - weak pattern. The short - term A - share market sentiment may not have peaked, and it is still cost - effective to buy on dips in the medium and long term [3]. - Precious metals are under pressure due to Powell's hawkish speech, and it is not advisable to go long for now [4][5]. - Copper prices are expected to remain strong at high levels in the short term, supported by the new wave of industries and tight fundamentals [6][7]. - Aluminum prices are expected to fall under the influence of Powell's hawkish speech, but the optimistic sentiment of Sino - US trade talks will limit the decline [8][9]. - Alumina prices are in a game between sufficient supply and production cut expectations, and subsequent production cut news should be monitored [10]. - Zinc prices are under pressure as the expectation of a December rate cut falls, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [11]. - Lead prices are expected to maintain a small - scale adjustment, and the low - inventory situation will limit the adjustment range [12]. - Tin prices are expected to operate at high levels in the short term, with the macro factor playing a leading role [13]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to continue to rebound in the short term, driven by improved macro expectations and stable fundamentals [14][15]. - Lithium carbonate prices are in a wide - range shock due to the intense long - short game [16][17]. - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate due to the mixed macro and fundamental factors [18][19]. - For soda ash and glass, glass prices may be adjusted, and soda ash will fluctuate [20]. - Steel prices are expected to continue to rebound in a volatile manner, with the focus on industrial data changes [21][22]. - Iron ore prices are expected to be strong in a volatile manner due to the continuously favorable macro environment [23]. - Bean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to be strong in a volatile manner in the short term, with the market awaiting details of Sino - US high - level meetings [24][25]. - Palm oil prices are expected to be weak in a volatile manner in the short term due to the loosening supply - demand situation [26][27]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Metals 3.1.1 Copper - The Fed cut interest rates as expected, and copper prices continued to rise. The LME copper price basically stood at the $11,000 level at night. The domestic electrolytic copper spot market had poor trading, and the LME inventory decreased to 135,000 tons. Glencore's copper production in the first three quarters decreased by 17% year - on - year [6]. - Short - term copper prices are expected to remain strong at high levels, affected by the new wave of industries and tight fundamentals [7]. 3.1.2 Aluminum - The Fed cut interest rates, and the domestic and foreign aluminum prices showed different trends. The domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory increased slightly. The market was affected by Powell's hawkish speech and Sino - US trade talks [8][9]. 3.1.3 Alumina - The alumina futures price rose, and the spot price fell slightly. An alumina enterprise in Hebei had a limited impact on production due to environmental protection inspections. The future production cut and maintenance expectations increased, and the price was in a game between supply and expectations [10]. 3.1.4 Zinc - The zinc price was under pressure as the December rate cut expectation fell. The spot market had general trading, and the Australian Endeavor mine had an accident and suspended operations [11]. 3.1.5 Lead - The lead price maintained an adjustment. The large - scale battery enterprises reduced production, the demand for raw materials weakened, and the low - inventory situation limited the adjustment range [12]. 3.1.6 Tin - The tin price was affected by the macro factor and fundamentals. The supply and demand were both weak, and the low - inventory situation supported the price. It was expected to operate at high levels in the short term [13]. 3.1.7 Nickel - The nickel price fluctuated. The Fed's interest rate cut and Powell's hawkish attitude affected the market. The industry had no obvious improvement, and the cost logic still existed [18][19]. 3.1.8 Precious Metals - The precious metal prices were under pressure due to Powell's hawkish speech. The gold price fell, and the silver price rose slightly. The market's expectation of further monetary easing cooled down [4][5]. 3.2 Non - Metals 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon price continued to rebound. The supply was stable, and the demand side had mixed news. The market was boosted by the improved domestic macro expectations [14][15]. 3.2.2 Carbonate Lithium - The carbonate lithium price fluctuated strongly. The supply of overseas spodumene mines was abundant, and the mica mines were relatively short. The market had an intense long - short game [16][17]. 3.2.3 Soda Ash and Glass - The soda ash futures price fluctuated strongly, and the glass futures price was adjusted. The glass market was weak, and the soda ash market had general trading [20]. 3.3 Steel and Iron 3.3.1 Steel - The steel futures price rebounded in a volatile manner. The macro environment was favorable, and the fundamentals were stable. The demand was expected to weaken with the cooling weather [22]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - The iron ore futures price rebounded in a volatile manner. The spot market was active, the supply pressure was partially relieved, and the price was expected to be strong in a volatile manner [23]. 3.4 Agricultural Products 3.4.1 Bean and Rapeseed Meal - The bean and rapeseed meal prices fluctuated strongly. The South American soybean planting situation was good, and the market was waiting for the details of Sino - US high - level meetings [24][25]. 3.4.2 Palm Oil - The palm oil price broke through and fell. The supply - demand situation tended to be loose, and the implementation time of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy might be postponed [26][27].