Goldman Sachs·2025-10-30 02:01Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Pharmaron (3759.HK) since January 1, 2020, with a 12-month price target of HK$30.00, indicating an upside potential of 20.2% from the current price of HK$24.96 [1][12]. Core Insights - Pharmaron reported a 3Q25 revenue of Rmb3.65 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 13.4% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 9.1%, slightly exceeding Goldman Sachs estimates of Rmb3.48 billion. This growth was driven by strong performance in the CMC and bioscience segments, particularly from the top 20 large pharmaceutical clients [1][2]. - The management has raised the full-year revenue growth guidance to 12-16% year-over-year, up from the previous guidance of 10-15%, suggesting a potential growth of 6-20% year-over-year in 4Q25. The management is optimistic about further margin improvements in 4Q25 compared to the first nine months of 2025 [1][2]. - The report highlights robust new project order momentum, particularly in the CMC segment, where new project orders increased by 13% year-over-year for the first three quarters, with a notable 20% year-over-year rise in CMC new orders driven by large pharmaceutical demand [2][20]. Summary by Sections Earnings Review - 3Q25 revenue: Rmb3.65 billion, up 13.4% y/y and 9.1% q/q, slightly above GSe of Rmb3.48 billion [1]. - Non-IFRS adjusted net profit margin improved to 12.9%, up from 11.3% in 1Q25 and 12.2% in 2Q25, supported by higher utilization rates [1]. Revenue Growth and Guidance - Full-year revenue growth guidance raised to 12-16% y/y from 10-15% y/y, implying 4Q25 growth of 6-20% y/y [1]. - Continued investment in biologics and strategic acquisitions positions Pharmaron for sustained growth in the CDMO space [1][20]. Segment Performance - CMC revenue reached Rmb903 million, up 12.7% y/y and 29.6% q/q, with a gross margin of 34.6% [2]. - Clinical development revenue was Rmb501 million, up 8.2% y/y, but gross margin declined to 10.8% due to project mix and competitive pressures [3][19]. Strategic Acquisitions - The acquisition of Biortus is expected to enhance Pharmaron's biologics service offerings, particularly in structural biology data supporting drug discovery [20]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025E are Rmb14,066.7 million, with EBITDA of Rmb3,532.9 million and EPS of Rmb0.91 [6][17]. - The report anticipates a 3-year earnings CAGR of 15% [21].